Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A month ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-closing-in-on-the-tsuruha-partial-tender-likely-needs-to-be-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206132" rel="noopener">[Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher</a>. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  </li>
<li>At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shares are up 10.0% in that month. </li>
<li>The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100</li>
</ul>


A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. </li>
<li>Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.</li>
<li>Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.</li>
</ul>


FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. 
Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.
Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.


Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.</li>
<li>It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.</li>
<li>ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.</li>
</ul>


The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.


ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan's Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan's Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

ABC Mart dominates the footwear retail sector, expanding as rivals shrink, and now venturing into apparel for continued growth as well as...

Michael Causton

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: ​FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan's Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

​ABC Mart dominates the footwear retail sector, expanding as rivals shrink, and now venturing into apparel for continued growth as well as...

Michael Causton

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

ABC Mart dominates the footwear retail sector, expanding as rivals shrink, and now venturing into apparel for continued growth as well as...