Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rakuten’s Mobile losses have held back its share price over the last few years, but it is finally starting to show some improvements with costs shrinking sequentially in 2QFY22.</li>
<li>However, most investors seem to have overlooked this QoQ drop thinking that it is driven by the impact of seasonality.</li>
<li>With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> Mobile’s cost growth.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten’s Mobile losses have held back its share price over the last few years, but it is finally starting to show some improvements with costs shrinking sequentially in 2QFY22.
However, most investors seem to have overlooked this QoQ drop thinking that it is driven by the impact of seasonality.
With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) Mobile’s cost growth.


Rakuten: Two Consecutive Quarters of Narrowing Mobile Losses Could Change Price Momentum

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,399m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Skylark, Tokyo Electron, Mcdonald'S, Softbank, Fujikura, Fast Retailing, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Sumitomo Forestry, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,399m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Skylark, Tokyo Electron, Mcdonald'S, Softbank, Fujikura, Fast Retailing, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Sumitomo Forestry, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 27th): Skylark, Tokyo Electron, Mcdonald'S, Softbank, Fujikura

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced a new shareholder benefit (株主優待) program today, to reward shareholders as of end-December 2024. The stated goal? To "thank shareholders"... </li>
<li>...And provide more people with the opportunity to try out the benefits of Rakuten Mobile, with 1yr free of a 30GB/mo mobile plan. There are conditions, but it's juicy.</li>
<li>Last year's 3mo plan was given with one day of notice. This year's larger full-year govt gets 3+wks. They are juicing the sub numbers for 2025.</li>
</ul>


Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced a new shareholder benefit (株主優待) program today, to reward shareholders as of end-December 2024. The stated goal? To "thank shareholders"... 
...And provide more people with the opportunity to try out the benefits of Rakuten Mobile, with 1yr free of a 30GB/mo mobile plan. There are conditions, but it's juicy.
Last year's 3mo plan was given with one day of notice. This year's larger full-year govt gets 3+wks. They are juicing the sub numbers for 2025.


Rakuten (4755 JP) - Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Shui On Land, Rakuten Group, Vedanta Resources</li>
<li>In the US, the November ISM manufacturing index came in above estimates at 48.4 (47.5 e / 46.5 p). The prices paid component fell to 50.3 (55.2 e / 54.8 p), while the new orders component rose to 50.4 (48.0 e / 47.1 p).</li>
<li>Separately, the November (final) US manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.7 (47.3 p), above the preliminary estimate of 48.8.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Shui On Land, Rakuten Group, Vedanta Resources
In the US, the November ISM manufacturing index came in above estimates at 48.4 (47.5 e / 46.5 p). The prices paid component fell to 50.3 (55.2 e / 54.8 p), while the new orders component rose to 50.4 (48.0 e / 47.1 p).
Separately, the November (final) US manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.7 (47.3 p), above the preliminary estimate of 48.8.


Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Rakuten: Two Consecutive Quarters of Narrowing Mobile Losses Could Change Price Momentum

With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 27th): Skylark, Tokyo Electron, Mcdonald'S, Softbank, Fujikura

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Skylark (3197 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Mcdonald'S (2702...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rakuten (4755 JP) - Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?

Rakuten Group on Friday announced a new Shareholder Benefit Plan. It is a doozy. Free mobile plan for 30GB data/mo plus free calling. For a year....

Travis Lundy

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Shui On Land, Rakuten...

Lucror Analytics

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