Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 JWD Acquisition: Infroneer acquires Japan Wind Development for ¥200 billion, sparking a ¥75 billion market cap dip and concerns about potential overpayment.</li>
<li>
 Valuation Analysis: Using DCF and comparable transaction values, estimates suggest JWD's equity value may be far lower than the agreed-upon ¥200 billion.</li>
<li>
 Need for Transparency: Infroneer's claim of fair value requires scrutiny. Market suggests an estimated fair value of ¥125 billion, emphasizing the need for detailed information on the acquisition.</li>
</ul>



 JWD Acquisition: Infroneer acquires Japan Wind Development for ¥200 billion, sparking a ¥75 billion market cap dip and concerns about potential overpayment.

 Valuation Analysis: Using DCF and comparable transaction values, estimates suggest JWD's equity value may be far lower than the agreed-upon ¥200 billion.

 Need for Transparency: Infroneer's claim of fair value requires scrutiny. Market suggests an estimated fair value of ¥125 billion, emphasizing the need for detailed information on the acquisition.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article this morning says the mystery bidder behind WK1/2/3 Limited is Nintendo founding family's Yamauchi No.10 Family Office. This changes things more than just knowing their identity does.</li>
<li>To start, their website is the most fun investment management company website I have come across. It's great.  <a href="https://y-n10.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://y-n10.com/</a>. It's also well worth reading. It's also worth noting their history.</li>
<li>Understanding the parameters here is key to understanding possible next steps.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article this morning says the mystery bidder behind WK1/2/3 Limited is Nintendo founding family's Yamauchi No.10 Family Office. This changes things more than just knowing their identity does.
To start, their website is the most fun investment management company website I have come across. It's great.  https://y-n10.com/. It's also well worth reading. It's also worth noting their history.
Understanding the parameters here is key to understanding possible next steps.


ToyoKen (1890) Mystery Bidder Is Yamauchi No. 10 Family Office - And That Changes Things

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

<ul>
<li>In September, YFO (Yamauchi Family Office) upped its Tender Offer proposal to ¥1,255/share. YFO presented. The Toyo Special Committee met, interviewed, examined, deliberated, then last week rejected YFO's proposal. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.toyo-const.co.jp/en/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/20231215E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejection</a> was a three-parter. First, they rejected YFO for not bringing management/ownership experience. Second, they said the proposal didn't add enough value. Third, the price was too low.</li>
<li>There were no metrics against which to measure anything. And now Toyo has apparently decided to withdraw its Tender Offer Proposal.</li>
</ul>


In September, YFO (Yamauchi Family Office) upped its Tender Offer proposal to ¥1,255/share. YFO presented. The Toyo Special Committee met, interviewed, examined, deliberated, then last week rejected YFO's proposal. 
The rejection was a three-parter. First, they rejected YFO for not bringing management/ownership experience. Second, they said the proposal didn't add enough value. Third, the price was too low.
There were no metrics against which to measure anything. And now Toyo has apparently decided to withdraw its Tender Offer Proposal.


Toyo Construction (1890) - Everyone Hits Pause

Japan

INFRONEER Holdings Inc. offers infrastructure construction services. The Company provides energy construction, road construction, airport construction, exhibition hall construction, and more. INFRONEER Holdings also produces construction equipment.

INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)

Infroneer (5076) | Valuation Turbulence

Infroneer's acquisition of Japan Wind Development raises concerns over potential overpayment and questions about the fair value of the deal. The...

Mark Chadwick

ToyoKen (1890) Mystery Bidder Is Yamauchi No. 10 Family Office - And That Changes Things

The Mystery Bidders WK 1-3 are, according to a Nikkei article in mid-day, Yamauchi Number 10 Family Office. This changes things. It is worth...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Toyo Construction (1890) - Everyone Hits Pause

Last week, Toyo Construction rejected YFO's tender offer proposal. Today, it appears from a Nikkei article that YFO have withdrawn it. I don't see...

Travis Lundy

Infroneer (5076) | Valuation Turbulence

​Infroneer's acquisition of Japan Wind Development raises concerns over potential overpayment and questions about the fair value of the deal. The...

Mark Chadwick

ToyoKen (1890) Mystery Bidder Is Yamauchi No. 10 Family Office - And That Changes Things

The Mystery Bidders WK 1-3 are, according to a Nikkei article in mid-day, Yamauchi Number 10 Family Office. This changes things. It is worth...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Toyo Construction (1890) - Everyone Hits Pause

Last week, Toyo Construction rejected YFO's tender offer proposal. Today, it appears from a Nikkei article that YFO have withdrawn it. I don't see...

Travis Lundy

Infroneer's acquisition of Japan Wind Development raises concerns over potential overpayment and questions about the fair value of the deal. The...