Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.</li>
<li>Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.


Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duality-biotherapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43878:1" rel="noopener">Duality Biotherapeutics </a>delivered a strong listing, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-zenergy-battery-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43855:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies</a> was still holding on to its deal price.</li>
<li>On the placements front, we looked at number of upcoming lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Duality Biotherapeutics delivered a strong listing, while Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies was still holding on to its deal price.
On the placements front, we looked at number of upcoming lockup expiries.


ECM Weekly (22 Apr 2025) - Suzuki, Zenergy, Chagee, Duality, Manycore, Horizon, Giant Bio, TV Asahi

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Rigaku IPO Lockup - Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.</li>
<li>Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF in September, there is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> being capped again in March 2026.</li>
<li>The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> outperformance versus the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting's PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

There is a US$7.6bn lock-up expiry in Swiggy on 12 May - 80% of that is PE/VC, so expect selling. The stock could remain under pressure but PE/VC...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (22 Apr 2025) - Suzuki, Zenergy, Chagee, Duality, Manycore, Horizon, Giant Bio, TV Asahi

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Rigaku IPO Lockup - Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing will be capped in September unless the stock underperforms the index over the next 3 months. There could be more capping next March....

Brian Freitas

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