Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan’s retail and distribution sector has long been seen as fragmented, even to the point of being accused of inefficiency. On the surface, concentration levels do remain low, but scratch that surface and a very different picture emerges.
By format and by category sector, larger companies are taking increasing share and, over the past five years, this trend has accelerated.
Now, given the pressures of Covid, there is ample opportunity for stronger players to gain ground by buying out weaker ones, while some mid-level companies are joining together, hoping to become a fish too big to swallow.
Business tie-ups are also increasing in number, particularly as physical retailers seek to bring in and learn skills necessary to succeed in e-commerce and to build omnichannel models.
The following is a detailed review of how concentration has increased along with a map of who own who in retailing today.
There is a strong possibility that we could see some really big deals, even ones that span format and geographical borders, as many mid-sized retailers recognise that independent survival is getting hard. Acquirers will use the current environment to diversify into new areas, expand volumes and market share, or simply acquire more retail property for long-term development.

Japan’s retail and distribution sector has long been seen as fragmented, even to the point of being accused of inefficiency. On the surface, concentration levels do remain low, but scratch that surface and a very different picture emerges.
By format and by category sector, larger companies are taking increasing share and, over the past five years, this trend has accelerated.
Now, given the pressures of Covid, there is ample opportunity for stronger players to gain ground by buying out weaker ones, while some mid-level companies are joining together, hoping to become a fish too big to swallow.
Business tie-ups are also increasing in number, particularly as physical retailers seek to bring in and learn skills necessary to succeed in e-commerce and to build omnichannel models.
The following is a detailed review of how concentration has increased along with a map of who own who in retailing today.
There is a strong possibility that we could see some really big deals, even ones that span format and geographical borders, as many mid-sized retailers recognise that independent survival is getting hard. Acquirers will use the current environment to diversify into new areas, expand volumes and market share, or simply acquire more retail property for long-term development.

Who Owns Who: Concentration Levels Accelerate in Japan Retail, with More M&A to Come

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Our 2021 high conviction call, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, announced last week that it has completed the acquisition of the Speedway Gas Stations business from Marathon Petroleum. However, the acting chairperson Rebecca Kelly Slaughter and Commissioner Rohit Chopra of the US Federal Trade Commission issued a statement on the FTC website, on May 14th, 2021, saying that this transaction is illegal as it could impact competition and cause prices to soar at gas stations and convenience stores across the U.S.This insight is labelled bullish because we think the odds of Seven &amp; I facing major legal and anticompetitive ramifications are somewhat slim, while there is still a possibility of 25-30% upside with the disclosure of the combined entity’s mid and long-term goals.

Our 2021 high conviction call, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), announced last week that it has completed the acquisition of the Speedway Gas Stations business from Marathon Petroleum. However, the acting chairperson Rebecca Kelly Slaughter and Commissioner Rohit Chopra of the US Federal Trade Commission issued a statement on the FTC website, on May 14th, 2021, saying that this transaction is illegal as it could impact competition and cause prices to soar at gas stations and convenience stores across the U.S.This insight is labelled bullish because we think the odds of Seven &amp; I facing major legal and anticompetitive ramifications are somewhat slim, while there is still a possibility of 25-30% upside with the disclosure of the combined entity’s mid and long-term goals.

2021 High Conviction Call: Seven & I Completes the Speedway Acquisition, But Not Without Trouble

Equity Bottom-Up

The merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.Jun Tsuruha, the current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>, Matsukiyo-Cocokara, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a> the most likely contenders.

The merger of Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.Jun Tsuruha, the current Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), Matsukiyo-Cocokara, Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) and Sugi Holdings (7649 JP) the most likely contenders.

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> has had a longstanding interest in Japan’s third largest convenience store chain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>, for quite some time, lifting its stake in Lawson to 50.1% from 33.4% in 2016 via a tender offer at ¥8,650 per share.
With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> acquiring 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> mid-way through last year and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> standing strong on its own, Lawson has become even more important to Mitsubishi’s food processing and distribution businesses. At 1.35x Topix, Lawson is currently trading at a <a target="_blank">new historical low level relative to the Topix </a>index and could perhaps lure Mitsubishi into taking full control.

Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) has had a longstanding interest in Japan’s third largest convenience store chain, Lawson Inc (2651 JP), for quite some time, lifting its stake in Lawson to 50.1% from 33.4% in 2016 via a tender offer at ¥8,650 per share.
With Itochu Corp (8001 JP) acquiring 100% of FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) mid-way through last year and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) standing strong on its own, Lawson has become even more important to Mitsubishi’s food processing and distribution businesses. At 1.35x Topix, Lawson is currently trading at a new historical low level relative to the Topix index and could perhaps lure Mitsubishi into taking full control.

Lawson: Primed for Mitsubishi to Take Full Control

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> is in the process of expanding its digital footprint. The company has long relied on tenant rents as a big part of its revenues and this is unlikely to change, and has also been slower than most to expand e-commerce and other digital systems. The pandemic has forced it to accelerate some plans and introduce some new ideas, many of which it has already trialled over in China.

Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) is in the process of expanding its digital footprint. The company has long relied on tenant rents as a big part of its revenues and this is unlikely to change, and has also been slower than most to expand e-commerce and other digital systems. The pandemic has forced it to accelerate some plans and introduce some new ideas, many of which it has already trialled over in China.

Japan

FamilyMart Co., Ltd. operates convenience store chains. The Company provides rice balls, hot snacks, stews, beverages, and other products. FamilyMart conducts businesses in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and other countries and regions.

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FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)

Who Owns Who: Concentration Levels Accelerate in Japan Retail, with More M&A to Come

Japanese retail is in the process of extensive concentration and market consolidation through M&A, organic expansion and tie-ups. Numerous...

Michael Causton

2021 High Conviction Call: Seven & I Completes the Speedway Acquisition, But Not Without Trouble

Investors cannot completely ignore legal ramifications, but the probability of occurrence of such seems somewhat slim in our opinion. On the other...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

The Japanese drugstore sector has seen a big merger but there will be more as the sector not only consolidates down to a few leaders but also...

Michael Causton

Lawson: Primed for Mitsubishi to Take Full Control

Before markets gets the wind of Lawson’s improving profitability, DPS, and ROE, there is a decent chance that Mitsubishi could be lured into making...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Aeon Expands Digital Footprint

Aeon has lagged some competitors in expanding online options for its customers and still only expects its new Ocado system to launch in 2023. In...

Michael Causton

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