Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p></div><div>
<p>The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.</p>
<p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.</p>
<p>Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.</p>
<p>Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</p>
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on 19 June.</p><p>There are 5 additions in the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-industrial-fund" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17517:1">Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/megaport-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24310:1">Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesoblast-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:769:1">Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperor-energy-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9522:1">Oil Basins Ltd (OBL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>.</p><p>There are 6 deletions in the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hub24-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12336:1">Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jumbo-interactive-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11495:1">Jumbo Interactive (JIN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> and Pinnacle Investment Management Group.</p><p>With only 6 days to implementation day there could be big moves ahead. As I type, the adds are down 2.61% on average while the deletes are 6.31% lower on average.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on 19 June.There are 5 additions in the review: Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU), Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU), Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU), Oil Basins Ltd (OBL AU) and Perseus Mining (PRU AU).There are 6 deletions in the review: Estia Health (EHE AU), Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU), Jumbo Interactive (JIN AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Pinnacle Investment Management Group.With only 6 days to implementation day there could be big moves ahead. As I type, the adds are down 2.61% on average while the deletes are 6.31% lower on average.

ASX200 Index Review - A Handful of Changes

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Charter Hall Long Wale Reit / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-long-wale-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24076:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW AU)</a> is looking to raise US$138m (A$200m) to fund the acquisition of a partial stake in BP's portfolio of 225 convenience retail properties and an industrial asset from Arnott's. In addition to the placement, CLW will also raise A$150m via a 1-for-15 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offfer. </p></div><p>This is the fifth fundraising by the REIT this year and the second fund raising over the last two months. We covered the larger raising earlier this year, in Aug 2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-long-wale-reit/insights?item=30242" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Placement - Neither Here nor There.</a></p><div><p>The deal scored a marginally positive on our framework and CLW will be included in the FTSE-EPRA-NAREIT index soon, which should help to keep the shares afloat.</p></div>

Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW AU) is looking to raise US$138m (A$200m) to fund the acquisition of a partial stake in BP's portfolio of 225 convenience retail properties and an industrial asset from Arnott's. In addition to the placement, CLW will also raise A$150m via a 1-for-15 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offfer. This is the fifth fundraising by the REIT this year and the second fund raising over the last two months. We covered the larger raising earlier this year, in Aug 2019, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Placement - Neither Here nor There.The deal scored a marginally positive on our framework and CLW will be included in the FTSE-EPRA-NAREIT index soon, which should help to keep the shares afloat.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Placement - A Little More Positive on This, Index Inclusion Should Help

Centuria Industrial REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-industrial-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17517:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU)</a> plans to raise up to US$105m (A$154m) in order to part fund its purchase of two industrial assets via a sale and leaseback with Arnott's. </p></div><div><p>The deal scores doesn't score well on our framework, owing to the large dilution and size versus ADV. Like its sister companies placement yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/centuria-metroploitan-reit-placement-a-case-of-too-much-too-soon-for-too-little-accretion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Centuria Metroploitan REIT Placement - A Case of Too Much Too Soon for Too Little Accretion</a>, this deal too follows hot on the heels of an an earlier raising in the middle of this year.</p></div>

Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU) plans to raise up to US$105m (A$154m) in order to part fund its purchase of two industrial assets via a sale and leaseback with Arnott's. The deal scores doesn't score well on our framework, owing to the large dilution and size versus ADV. Like its sister companies placement yesterday, Centuria Metroploitan REIT Placement - A Case of Too Much Too Soon for Too Little Accretion, this deal too follows hot on the heels of an an earlier raising in the middle of this year.

Centuria Industrial REIT Placement - Relatively Big Raise for Relatively Little Accretion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>ESR has now declared its Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22857" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22857:1">Propertylink Group (PLG AU)</a> </strong>"<a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190121/pdf/441zx7wmdp7t1l.pdf" target="_blank">to be best and final</a>", and the Offer has been extended until the 28 February (unless further extended). </p>
<p>After adjusting for the interim distribution of A$0.036/share (ex-date 28 December; payment 31 January), the amount payable by ESR under the Offer is A$1.164/share, cash.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181120/pdf/440fwygk726zrb.pdf" target="_blank">Target Statement</a> issued back on the 20 November included a "fair and reasonable" opinion from KPMG,  together with unanimous PLG board support.</p>
<p>To recap: after PLG rebuffed an offer from <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15546" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a></strong> in September, followed by PLG making an offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17517" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17517:1">Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU)</a></strong> - in which both CNI (23.5%) and PLG (17.3%) have sizeable stakes - ESR launched its offer for PLG. Adding to the cross-holdings, ESR also acquired major positions in both PLG (18.06% initially, now up to 19.9%) and CNI (14.9%).</p>
<p>ESR's Offer is conditional on a minimum acceptance condition of 50.1%. CNI has a 19.5% stake and Vinva Investment Management 5%.</p>
<p>The next key event is CNI's shareholder vote on the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181221/pdf/441fnt16lpzr4b.pdf" target="_blank">31 January</a>. This is not a vote to decide on tendering the shares held by CNI in PLG into ESR's offer; but to give CNI's board the authorisation to tender (or not to tender) those PLG shares. </p>
<p>Although no definitive decision has been made public by CNI, calling the EGM to get shareholder approval and attaching a "fair &amp; reasonable" opinion from an independent expert (Deloitte) to CNI's EGM notice, can be construed as sending a strong signal CNI's board will ultimately tender in its shares. According to the <a href="https://www.afr.com/real-estate/esr-steps-up-effort-to-take-over-propertylink-in-723m-deal-20190122-h1abza" target="_blank">AFR</a> (paywalled), CNI's John Mcbain said: "<em>We want to make sure when we do decide to vote, if we get shareholder approval, the timing is with us</em>". </p>
<p>Assuming the resolution passes, CNI's board decision on PLG shares will take place shortly afterwards. My bet is this turns unconditional the first week of Feb. The consideration under the Offer would then be paid 20 business days after the Offer becomes unconditional. Now trading with completion in mind at a gross/annualised spread of 0.8%/6.7%, assuming payment the first week of March.</p>

ESR has now declared its Offer for Propertylink Group (PLG AU) "to be best and final", and the Offer has been extended until the 28 February (unless further extended). 
After adjusting for the interim distribution of A$0.036/share (ex-date 28 December; payment 31 January), the amount payable by ESR under the Offer is A$1.164/share, cash.
The Target Statement issued back on the 20 November included a "fair and reasonable" opinion from KPMG,  together with unanimous PLG board support.
To recap: after PLG rebuffed an offer from Centuria Capital (CNI AU) in September, followed by PLG making an offer for Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU) - in which both CNI (23.5%) and PLG (17.3%) have sizeable stakes - ESR launched its offer for PLG. Adding to the cross-holdings, ESR also acquired major positions in both PLG (18.06% initially, now up to 19.9%) and CNI (14.9%).
ESR's Offer is conditional on a minimum acceptance condition of 50.1%. CNI has a 19.5% stake and Vinva Investment Management 5%.
The next key event is CNI's shareholder vote on the 31 January. This is not a vote to decide on tendering the shares held by CNI in PLG into ESR's offer; but to give CNI's board the authorisation to tender (or not to tender) those PLG shares. 
Although no definitive decision has been made public by CNI, calling the EGM to get shareholder approval and attaching a "fair &amp; reasonable" opinion from an independent expert (Deloitte) to CNI's EGM notice, can be construed as sending a strong signal CNI's board will ultimately tender in its shares. According to the AFR (paywalled), CNI's John Mcbain said: "We want to make sure when we do decide to vote, if we get shareholder approval, the timing is with us". 
Assuming the resolution passes, CNI's board decision on PLG shares will take place shortly afterwards. My bet is this turns unconditional the first week of Feb. The consideration under the Offer would then be paid 20 business days after the Offer becomes unconditional. Now trading with completion in mind at a gross/annualised spread of 0.8%/6.7%, assuming payment the first week of March.

Propertylink - CNI Shareholders To Vote On ESR's Final Offer

Australia

Centuria Capital Group (CNI) is an ASX-listed specialist investment manager. Investments offered include listed and unlisted property funds as well as investment bonds. The company is located in Australia.

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Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Review - A Handful of Changes

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June...

Brian Freitas

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Placement - A Little More Positive on This, Index Inclusion Should Help

Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW AU) is looking to raise US$138m (A$200m) to fund the acquisition of a partial stake in BP's portfolio of 225...

Sumeet Singh

Centuria Industrial REIT Placement - Relatively Big Raise for Relatively Little Accretion

Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU) plans to raise up to US$105m (A$154m) in order to part fund its purchase of two industrial assets via a sale and...

Sumeet Singh

Propertylink - CNI Shareholders To Vote On ESR's Final Offer

ESR has now declared its Offer for Propertylink Group (PLG AU) "to be best and final", and the Offer has been extended until the 28 February...

David Blennerhassett

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