HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While the 2H FY25 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> does not look exciting, there are meaningful operating and financial improvements deep inside. </li>
<li>The HSI change is a good proxy for its investment gains, and the 5.9% gain since end-FY25 (Mar) should positively reflect on CNDX's 1H FY26 results. </li>
<li>The sports goods business is not expected to be a drag in FY26. Trading at a steep 76.5% discount, the stock stays highly undervalued.</li>
</ul>


While the 2H FY25 result of China Dongxiang (3818 HK) does not look exciting, there are meaningful operating and financial improvements deep inside. 
The HSI change is a good proxy for its investment gains, and the 5.9% gain since end-FY25 (Mar) should positively reflect on CNDX's 1H FY26 results. 
The sports goods business is not expected to be a drag in FY26. Trading at a steep 76.5% discount, the stock stays highly undervalued.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

<ul>
<li>1Q25 sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.</li>
<li>With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. </li>
<li>Its associate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>, has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  </li>
</ul>


1Q25 sales for Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.
With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. 
Its associate, Amer Sports (AS US), has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  


Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s strong FY24 result is masked by one-offs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>. Without them, its earnings would have declined by an alarming 5.4% in 2H24. </li>
<li>Its ANTA and FILA brands have seen YoY operating profit drop in 2H24, with heavy margin pressure. Their revenue growth has also showed meaningful slowdown sequentially.</li>
<li>The 18.6x PER for FY25 is at a 50% premium to the sector, but the market expectation of 15% growth looks challenging. The YTD rally has opened room for profit-taking.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s strong FY24 result is masked by one-offs and Amer Sports (AS US). Without them, its earnings would have declined by an alarming 5.4% in 2H24. 
Its ANTA and FILA brands have seen YoY operating profit drop in 2H24, with heavy margin pressure. Their revenue growth has also showed meaningful slowdown sequentially.
The 18.6x PER for FY25 is at a 50% premium to the sector, but the market expectation of 15% growth looks challenging. The YTD rally has opened room for profit-taking.


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

361 Degrees International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The FY24 result was a small beat, and we are not concerned about the short term volatility in inventories and cashflow.</li><li>We remain positive because the industry trend is improving, even thou management’s FY25E guidance is conservative.</li><li>Moreover, the Super Premium store may be a wild card and we should continue to track this closely. Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$ 5.97 (mostly roll over).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The FY24 result was a small beat, and we are not concerned about the short term volatility in inventories and cashflow.We remain positive because the industry trend is improving, even thou management’s FY25E guidance is conservative.Moreover, the Super Premium store may be a wild card and we should continue to track this closely. Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$ 5.97 (mostly roll over).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

361 Degrees (1361 HK) - Cautiously Optimistic After a Decent 2025 CNY

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a>'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. </li>
<li>Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.</li>
<li>Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.</li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK)'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. 
Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.
Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

China

361 Degrees International is a leading Chinese sportswear enterprise that manufactures and trades in a wide range of sporting goods, including footwear, apparel, and accessories for adults and children. The company focuses on professional sports functionality and offers products under its 361° core and 361° Kids brand names. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Xiamen, People's Republic of China.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

China Dongxiang Group shows promising operating and financial improvements despite unexciting 2H FY25 results. The stock remains highly...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

Anta Sports has a healthy 1Q25, but uncertainty looms due to the US-China trade war and Amer Sports' exposure. The Jack Wolfskin acquisition will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution

Anta's strong FY24 result was overshadowed by one-offs and Amer's impact, with earnings declining by 5.4% in 2H24. ANTA and FILA brands facing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

361 Degrees (1361 HK) - Cautiously Optimistic After a Decent 2025 CNY

The FY24 result was a small beat, and we are not concerned about the short term volatility in inventories and cashflow. We remain positive because...

CMB International

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

​China Dongxiang Group shows promising operating and financial improvements despite unexciting 2H FY25 results. The stock remains highly...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

​Anta Sports has a healthy 1Q25, but uncertainty looms due to the US-China trade war and Amer Sports' exposure. The Jack Wolfskin acquisition will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution

​Anta's strong FY24 result was overshadowed by one-offs and Amer's impact, with earnings declining by 5.4% in 2H24. ANTA and FILA brands facing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

361 Degrees (1361 HK) - Cautiously Optimistic After a Decent 2025 CNY

The FY24 result was a small beat, and we are not concerned about the short term volatility in inventories and cashflow. We remain positive because...

CMB International

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

​CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang Group shows promising operating and financial improvements despite unexciting 2H FY25 results. The stock remains highly...

Anta Sports has a healthy 1Q25, but uncertainty looms due to the US-China trade war and Amer Sports' exposure. The Jack Wolfskin acquisition will...

Anta's strong FY24 result was overshadowed by one-offs and Amer's impact, with earnings declining by 5.4% in 2H24. ANTA and FILA brands facing...

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...