HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.</li>
<li>Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.</li>
<li>It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiabuxiabu-catering-mgt-chn-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:76:1" rel="noopener">Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helen-s-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34113:1" rel="noopener">Helen's (9869 HK)</a> which have almost doubled from trough.</li>
</ul>


While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.
Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.
It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like Haidilao (6862 HK), Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) and Helen's (9869 HK) which have almost doubled from trough.


China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The potential IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s 52.7% owned Amer Sports is positive in unlocking the latter's underlying value, though the impact is quite limited.</li>
<li>Assuming a P/S of 1.8x (30% discount to peers) and 25% enlargement in share capital, we estimate the exercise may bring ~HK$6n of potential pre-tax deemed disposal gain.</li>
<li>Although Anta Sports may not receive any cash, it can still pay out special dividends given its Rmb12bn net cash, and this will raise FY23 dividend yield to 3.1%.  </li>
</ul>


The potential IPO of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s 52.7% owned Amer Sports is positive in unlocking the latter's underlying value, though the impact is quite limited.
Assuming a P/S of 1.8x (30% discount to peers) and 25% enlargement in share capital, we estimate the exercise may bring ~HK$6n of potential pre-tax deemed disposal gain.
Although Anta Sports may not receive any cash, it can still pay out special dividends given its Rmb12bn net cash, and this will raise FY23 dividend yield to 3.1%.  


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Assessing the Impact of a Potential Amer Sports IPO

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the near-term, China's relaxation of COVID-combating measures will boost consumption and demand for cross-province travel. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> is a beneficiary.</li>
<li>Hotel bookings in Sanya have surged over the last two days, reflecting positive demand reaction. However, China's full border opening likely in 2023 is a challenge to CDFC.  </li>
<li>Low base in FY22 will drive 45% earnings growth for FY23. However, valuations are not cheap at 33.8x PER for FY23, a significant premium to consumption sector and international peers.</li>
</ul>


In the near-term, China's relaxation of COVID-combating measures will boost consumption and demand for cross-province travel. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) is a beneficiary.
Hotel bookings in Sanya have surged over the last two days, reflecting positive demand reaction. However, China's full border opening likely in 2023 is a challenge to CDFC.  
Low base in FY22 will drive 45% earnings growth for FY23. However, valuations are not cheap at 33.8x PER for FY23, a significant premium to consumption sector and international peers.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Resilient online sales growth during double 11, where Tik Tok, PDD and JD platforms continued to outperform.</li><li>Based on our channel check and CMBI est., the online GMV growth during 2022’s double 11 was at ~14% YoY, inline with CMBI est. and beat market expectation, similar to online sales growth in Sep 2022 and had picked up vs Oct 2022.</li><li>In terms of platforms, YoY growth for Alibaba (Tmall + Tao Bao)/ JD/ PDD/ TikTok increased by ~flattish/ ~teens/ 27%/ 38%.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Resilient online sales growth during double 11, where Tik Tok, PDD and JD platforms continued to outperform.Based on our channel check and CMBI est., the online GMV growth during 2022’s double 11 was at ~14% YoY, inline with CMBI est. and beat market expectation, similar to online sales growth in Sep 2022 and had picked up vs Oct 2022.In terms of platforms, YoY growth for Alibaba (Tmall + Tao Bao)/ JD/ PDD/ TikTok increased by ~flattish/ ~teens/ 27%/ 38%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – Sequential improvements during double 11

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

China Datang Corp Renewable Power / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After one month from the September batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 12 stocks. </li>
<li>We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.</li>
<li>We continued to observed outperformance post the HSCI announcement but not the actual inclusion despite the fact that southbound inflows has a significant impact on the trading volume. </li>
</ul>


After one month from the September batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 12 stocks. 
We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.
We continued to observed outperformance post the HSCI announcement but not the actual inclusion despite the fact that southbound inflows has a significant impact on the trading volume. 


HK Connect: Sep '22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

China

361 Degrees International Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes sportswear products, including athletic footwear, apparel and accessories.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Near-term negative impact of China's U-turn in COVID policy on consumer discretionary has been underestimated by the market. It is prudent to take...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Assessing the Impact of a Potential Amer Sports IPO

A potential IPO of Anta Sports' 52.7%-owned Amer Sports may generate ~HK$6n of deemed disposal gain, based on P/S of 1.8x and 25% capital...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

China's relaxation of COVID control will bring better near-term outlook, as reflected by surge in Sanya's hotel bookings. There are still...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Sportswear Sector – Sequential improvements during double 11

Based on our channel check and CMBI est., the online GMV growth during 2022’s double 11 was at ~14% YoY, inline with CMBI est. and beat market...

CMB International

HK Connect: Sep '22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

We analyzed south bound Hong Kong connect's inclusion in September following Hang Seng index review on August 19th. We highlight strong post...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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