IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-champion-gymnast-li-ning-considers-taking-company-private-sources-say-2024-03-12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that due to the steep share price declines, Mr Li Ning is considering leading a consortium to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The shares have been weighed down by concerns about channel inventory, steep retail discounts, and unauthorised distributor sales. To counter this, Li Ning aims to achieve RMB50bn sales by 2028.</li>
<li>The probability of an offer is low as funding the scheme consideration could prove challenging. Nevertheless, the downside is low as Li Ning trades at an undemanding valuation. </li>
</ul>


Reuters reported that due to the steep share price declines, Mr Li Ning is considering leading a consortium to privatise Li Ning (2331 HK). 
The shares have been weighed down by concerns about channel inventory, steep retail discounts, and unauthorised distributor sales. To counter this, Li Ning aims to achieve RMB50bn sales by 2028.
The probability of an offer is low as funding the scheme consideration could prove challenging. Nevertheless, the downside is low as Li Ning trades at an undemanding valuation. 


Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124040" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on ball &amp; racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership, cash burn and high leverage.</li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.
In Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on ball &amp; racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership, cash burn and high leverage.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.</li>
<li>In 2019, a consortium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>, FountainVest, Anamered Investments and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> acquired Amer at an EV of €5.5 billion.  </li>
<li>The bull case rests on the rapid growth and gross margin improvement under the consortium's ownership, along with technical apparel and outdoor performance’s improving revenue and margin profile. </li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.
In 2019, a consortium of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), FountainVest, Anamered Investments and Tencent (700 HK) acquired Amer at an EV of €5.5 billion.  
The bull case rests on the rapid growth and gross margin improvement under the consortium's ownership, along with technical apparel and outdoor performance’s improving revenue and margin profile. 


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>, has finally filed a US IPO registration. This is positive for Anta Sports as it can realise Amer's value.</li>
<li>Reported losses at Amer have increased YoY for 9M23 due to higher finance cost. But, its gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA margins have all recorded solid improvements. </li>
<li>Assuming Amer is listed at the sector's average FY23 P/S of 1.6x, Anta Sports may book deemed disposal gain of HK$13.5bn, or about 6.8% of its market capitalisation.</li>
</ul>


Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), has finally filed a US IPO registration. This is positive for Anta Sports as it can realise Amer's value.
Reported losses at Amer have increased YoY for 9M23 due to higher finance cost. But, its gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA margins have all recorded solid improvements. 
Assuming Amer is listed at the sector's average FY23 P/S of 1.6x, Anta Sports may book deemed disposal gain of HK$13.5bn, or about 6.8% of its market capitalisation.


Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports' IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> achieved a decent 3Q23 with sales performance of major brands outperformed. With a low comparison base, 4Q23 sales will be even more impressive. </li>
<li>Indications are that sales for the Golden Week are satisfactory and "double-11" sales are optimistic. The acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE will further add to its product portfolio.</li>
<li>Amer's IPO is another catalyst and reports are that this has been filed in the US. Anta Sports' stake may be valued at US$4bn, almost 12% of its market cap.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) achieved a decent 3Q23 with sales performance of major brands outperformed. With a low comparison base, 4Q23 sales will be even more impressive. 
Indications are that sales for the Golden Week are satisfactory and "double-11" sales are optimistic. The acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE will further add to its product portfolio.
Amer's IPO is another catalyst and reports are that this has been filed in the US. Anta Sports' stake may be valued at US$4bn, almost 12% of its market cap.


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Bucking the Challenging Trend

China

361 Degrees International Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes sportswear products, including athletic footwear, apparel and accessories.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

The probability of an offer is low as funding the scheme consideration could prove challenging. Nevertheless, the downside is low as Li Ning trades...

Arun George

Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on ball and racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership,...

Arun George

Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the rapid growth and gross margin improvement under the consortium's ownership, along with technical apparel and outdoor...

Arun George

Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports' IPO

Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports, files for US IPO. Despite increased losses for 9M23, Amer's margins have improved. Anta Sports could gain...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Bucking the Challenging Trend

Anta Sports had a solid 3Q23, with major brand sales outperforming. 4Q23 sales are expected to be even better. Acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

The probability of an offer is low as funding the scheme consideration could prove challenging. Nevertheless, the downside is low as Li Ning trades...

Arun George

Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on ball and racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership,...

Arun George

Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the rapid growth and gross margin improvement under the consortium's ownership, along with technical apparel and outdoor...

Arun George

Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports' IPO

​Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports, files for US IPO. Despite increased losses for 9M23, Amer's margins have improved. Anta Sports could gain...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Bucking the Challenging Trend

​Anta Sports had a solid 3Q23, with major brand sales outperforming. 4Q23 sales are expected to be even better. Acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports, files for US IPO. Despite increased losses for 9M23, Amer's margins have improved. Anta Sports could gain...

Anta Sports had a solid 3Q23, with major brand sales outperforming. 4Q23 sales are expected to be even better. Acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE and...