Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Macroeconomics

The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning in Asia time. Two weeks later, true global central bank easing activity was launched. On 16 March, the BOJ announced Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-delta-i-the-boj-ups-etf-buying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37528" rel="noopener">JAPAN DELTA I - The BOJ Ups ETF Buying</a> this meant the BOJ would lift its ETF buying rate from ¥6 trillion a year to ¥12 trillion a year, including ¥11.7 trillion of purchases of TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.In the six weeks since then, the BOJ has purchased ¥2.0038 trillion in ETFs, and has lifted its 3-month annualised purchase rate from ¥4.8trln as of the end of February to ¥13.5trln as of the end of last week. This stretches the concept of "upper limit on annualised purchases" but the BOJ has not shown reticence to buy on weakness. An update below.

The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning in Asia time. Two weeks later, true global central bank easing activity was launched. On 16 March, the BOJ announced Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).As discussed in JAPAN DELTA I - The BOJ Ups ETF Buying this meant the BOJ would lift its ETF buying rate from ¥6 trillion a year to ¥12 trillion a year, including ¥11.7 trillion of purchases of TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.In the six weeks since then, the BOJ has purchased ¥2.0038 trillion in ETFs, and has lifted its 3-month annualised purchase rate from ¥4.8trln as of the end of February to ¥13.5trln as of the end of last week. This stretches the concept of "upper limit on annualised purchases" but the BOJ has not shown reticence to buy on weakness. An update below.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/170/original/2020-01-28_05-14-43.png?1580156104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115170"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>TRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/171/original/2020-01-28_05-28-10.png?1580156919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet Office</div>TRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.<div class="content-highlight">Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet OfficeTRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did poorly and really the only investment styles/factors that did well were large-cap and names with a high percent of retail investors.

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did poorly and really the only investment styles/factors that did well were large-cap and names with a high percent of retail investors.  

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of the year. Please make no mistake, seasonality exists in Japan. We calculated the returns from September 1st to December 31st going back to 1996.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7245" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> top the list with an 82% success rate and an average return of 13%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17620" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> is next also with an 82% success rate and a median return of 13%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a> also…

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of the year. Please make no mistake, seasonality exists in Japan. We calculated the returns from September 1st to December 31st going back to 1996.  Nidec Corp (6594 JP) top the list with an 82% success rate and an average return of 13%. JSR Corp (4185 JP) is next also with an 82% success rate and a median return of 13%. Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP) also…

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress. • HSI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP. • ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but notinvalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). • KOSPI/MXAP: Long term outperformance still expected. • Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. • TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • Upgrade Japan and Korea from “Hold” to “Increase Exposure”as both RV are bouncing off support. • The ratios HK (HSI) and China (HSCEI) vs MXAP moved sideways, we temporarily lower our rating to “Hold”. • Remain overweight for Australia while keeping "Hold" rating for Taiwan and India.

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress. • HSI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP. • ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but notinvalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). • KOSPI/MXAP: Long term outperformance still expected. • Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. • TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms • Upgrade Japan and Korea from “Hold” to “Increase Exposure”as both RV are bouncing off support. • The ratios HK (HSI) and China (HSCEI) vs MXAP moved sideways, we temporarily lower our rating to “Hold”. • Remain overweight for Australia while keeping "Hold" rating for Taiwan and India.

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 13 June 2018

Japan

NITTO DENKO CORPORATION manufactures and markets a wide range of chemical products which are used as materials for industrial and electronic components. The Company's products include materials for sealants, semiconductors, and wrappings.  Nitto Denko has a network of sales/manufacturing subsidiaries worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nitto Denko (6988 JP)

BOJ ETF Buying Update

The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

TRACKING RESULTS & REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the...

Campbell Gunn

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did...

Custom Products Group

Best Japanese Performers in the Fall....

With summer starting to wind down, we put together a screen looking at names that have historically done the best from September through the end of...

Custom Products Group

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 13 June 2018

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vsMXAP in USD terms• NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term...

BBSP Asia

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)