Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions. </li>
<li>We're half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead. </li>
<li>Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It's just a question of timing.</li>
</ul>


When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions. 
We're half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead. 
Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It's just a question of timing.


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?</li>
<li>In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs</li>
</ul>


Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs


ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

<ul>
<li>
HK$13.00/Share (deemed final). That's the key takeaway here as the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium (finally) tables a firm offer, by way of a pre-conditional Scheme.</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions are extensive, with a long stop date of the 4th September 2025.</li>
<li>HK$13.00 is below prior expectations of a HK$14+ handle. But with irrevocables of 30.79% of the register (and 51.24% of Scheme shares), this is done. A scrip option is afforded.</li>
</ul>



HK$13.00/Share (deemed final). That's the key takeaway here as the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium (finally) tables a firm offer, by way of a pre-conditional Scheme.
Pre-Conditions are extensive, with a long stop date of the 4th September 2025.
HK$13.00 is below prior expectations of a HK$14+ handle. But with irrevocables of 30.79% of the register (and 51.24% of Scheme shares), this is done. A scrip option is afforded.


<ul>
<li>Back on the 13th May 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> announced a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0513/2024051300798.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delisting proposal</a> from a consortium of investors formed by Starwood Capital Operations, Sixth Street Partners, and SSW Partners.</li>
<li>The consortium initially controlled 15.7%. Warburg (~14%) and ESR founders (~7.4%) tipped in their stakes. As did Qatar (3%) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1004/2024100401641.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earlier this month</a>, bringing the collective total to 39.9%.</li>
<li>No terms have been made public. Yesterday a Bloomberg article flagging "an agreement also might not be reached" saw shares freefall. Plus Capital Group recently trimmed its stake.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 13th May 2024, ESR Group (1821 HK) announced a delisting proposal from a consortium of investors formed by Starwood Capital Operations, Sixth Street Partners, and SSW Partners.
The consortium initially controlled 15.7%. Warburg (~14%) and ESR founders (~7.4%) tipped in their stakes. As did Qatar (3%) earlier this month, bringing the collective total to 39.9%.
No terms have been made public. Yesterday a Bloomberg article flagging "an agreement also might not be reached" saw shares freefall. Plus Capital Group recently trimmed its stake.


ESR (1821 HK): Sell First, Ask Questions Later

<ul>
<li>We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies</li>
<li>We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results</li>
<li>We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda</li>
</ul>


We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies
We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results
We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda


Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

Hong Kong

KLN Logistics Group Limited is a global third-party logistics (3PL) provider offering integrated logistics and international freight forwarding services, including air, ocean, road, and rail freight, as well as e-commerce and supply chain solutions. The company serves various industries such as fashion, electronics, food & beverage, and pharmaceuticals. Founded in 1981, KLN Logistics Group is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.

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KLN Logistics (636 HK)

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons

Four of the eight key pre-conditions are now in the bag. And irrevocable undertakings have also been bolstered. This is a done deal. It’s just a...

David Blennerhassett

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

ESR (1821 HK): Sell First, Ask Questions Later

According to Reuters, “a consortium including Starwood Capital Group and Warburg Pincus aims to finalise a deal to take ESR Group private in the...

David Blennerhassett

Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

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ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons

Four of the eight key pre-conditions are now in the bag. And irrevocable undertakings have also been bolstered. This is a done deal. It’s just a...

David Blennerhassett

ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Early Q424 reports from J&T Global and ZTO Express suggest that the former company is still using price to take volume share. Meanwhile, ZTO's sub...

Tracking Traffic

ESR (1821 HK): HK$13.00/Share Offer

This is a done. Assuming early August completion - or eight months out - I'd pay ~HK$11.85/share for a 15% annualised return; up to HK$12/share if...

David Blennerhassett

ESR (1821 HK): Sell First, Ask Questions Later

According to Reuters, “a consortium including Starwood Capital Group and Warburg Pincus aims to finalise a deal to take ESR Group private in the...

David Blennerhassett

Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic