External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than-expected ad demand in certain verticals such as FMCG, handsets and online games.</li><li>We estimate non-GAAP net income to drop by 20% YoY to US$111mn in 3Q25E (largely in line with consensus estimate), mainly due to the revenue decline and stepped-up AI investment.</li><li>Given the pressure in certain verticals, we lower FY25-27E total revenue forecast by 1-2%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than-expected ad demand in certain verticals such as FMCG, handsets and online games.We estimate non-GAAP net income to drop by 20% YoY to US$111mn in 3Q25E (largely in line with consensus estimate), mainly due to the revenue decline and stepped-up AI investment.Given the pressure in certain verticals, we lower FY25-27E total revenue forecast by 1-2%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q25 Preview: Ad Business Under Pressure Amid Headwinds in Certain Verticals

<ul><li>Weibo reported 1Q25 results: net revenue was flattish YoY at US$397mn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income increased by 12% YoY to US$120mn, 26% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to the decline in S&amp;M/R&amp;D expenses (-8%/-6% YoY).</li><li>Despite policy support, management noted that advertisers in certain sectors like beauty &amp; personal care remained cautious on ad spending amid macro uncertainty.</li><li>Looking into 2Q25E, we forecast total revenue to remain largely flattish YoY at US$439mn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo reported 1Q25 results: net revenue was flattish YoY at US$397mn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income increased by 12% YoY to US$120mn, 26% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to the decline in S&amp;M/R&amp;D expenses (-8%/-6% YoY).Despite policy support, management noted that advertisers in certain sectors like beauty &amp; personal care remained cautious on ad spending amid macro uncertainty.Looking into 2Q25E, we forecast total revenue to remain largely flattish YoY at US$439mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - Flattish 1Q25 Topline; Leverage AI to Capture New Opportunities

<ul><li>Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107mn, 9% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to effective opex control.</li><li>FY24 net revenue was US$1.75bn, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis. For FY25E, the overall advertiser sentiment remains mixed.</li><li>Supported by the national subsidy program, certain verticals such as 3C and e-commerce have increased their ad budget, while other verticals such as cosmetics, personal care and games remain cautious on ad spending. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107mn, 9% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to effective opex control.FY24 net revenue was US$1.75bn, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis. For FY25E, the overall advertiser sentiment remains mixed.Supported by the national subsidy program, certain verticals such as 3C and e-commerce have increased their ad budget, while other verticals such as cosmetics, personal care and games remain cautious on ad spending. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - Advertiser Sentiment Remains Mixed; Stepping up AI Investment in FY25

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;</li>
<li>JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;</li>
<li>NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.</li>
</ul>


Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;
JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>Earnings results have differed in the recently concluded C3Q24. Performance ads in home electronics, 3C, auto, entertainment and travel have benefited from recovery in consumption; </li>
<li>Heading into C4Q24, we expect rebound in real estate to benefit property ads, and the continuing warm up in consumption to spread to e-commerce (apparel and cosmetics);</li>
<li>We expect trade-in subsidies for home electronics and electrical vehicles to renew in C1Q25 and further stimulus to encourage consumption in travel and catering to be announced. </li>
</ul>


Earnings results have differed in the recently concluded C3Q24. Performance ads in home electronics, 3C, auto, entertainment and travel have benefited from recovery in consumption; 
Heading into C4Q24, we expect rebound in real estate to benefit property ads, and the continuing warm up in consumption to spread to e-commerce (apparel and cosmetics);
We expect trade-in subsidies for home electronics and electrical vehicles to renew in C1Q25 and further stimulus to encourage consumption in travel and catering to be announced. 


Stimulus Policies Are Now the Biggest Determinant of Internet Ads Performances

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q25 Preview: Ad Business Under Pressure Amid Headwinds in Certain Verticals

We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than...

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - Flattish 1Q25 Topline; Leverage AI to Capture New Opportunities

We maintain our FY25-27E earnings forecast, and our unchanged TP of US$14.5 is based on 8x FY25E non-GAAP PE. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - Advertiser Sentiment Remains Mixed; Stepping up AI Investment in FY25

Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stimulus Policies Are Now the Biggest Determinant of Internet Ads Performances

C3Q24 earnings show ad performances are highly correlated with stimulus spending. We expect continuing stimulus to sustain the benefit and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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Weibo (WB US) - 3Q25 Preview: Ad Business Under Pressure Amid Headwinds in Certain Verticals

We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than...

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - Flattish 1Q25 Topline; Leverage AI to Capture New Opportunities

We maintain our FY25-27E earnings forecast, and our unchanged TP of US$14.5 is based on 8x FY25E non-GAAP PE. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - Advertiser Sentiment Remains Mixed; Stepping up AI Investment in FY25

Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

​Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stimulus Policies Are Now the Biggest Determinant of Internet Ads Performances

​C3Q24 earnings show ad performances are highly correlated with stimulus spending. We expect continuing stimulus to sustain the benefit and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

C3Q24 earnings show ad performances are highly correlated with stimulus spending. We expect continuing stimulus to sustain the benefit and...