External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than-expected ad demand in certain verticals such as FMCG, handsets and online games.</li><li>We estimate non-GAAP net income to drop by 20% YoY to US$111mn in 3Q25E (largely in line with consensus estimate), mainly due to the revenue decline and stepped-up AI investment.</li><li>Given the pressure in certain verticals, we lower FY25-27E total revenue forecast by 1-2%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than-expected ad demand in certain verticals such as FMCG, handsets and online games.We estimate non-GAAP net income to drop by 20% YoY to US$111mn in 3Q25E (largely in line with consensus estimate), mainly due to the revenue decline and stepped-up AI investment.Given the pressure in certain verticals, we lower FY25-27E total revenue forecast by 1-2%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q25 Preview: Ad Business Under Pressure Amid Headwinds in Certain Verticals

<ul><li>Weibo reported 1Q25 results: net revenue was flattish YoY at US$397mn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income increased by 12% YoY to US$120mn, 26% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to the decline in S&amp;M/R&amp;D expenses (-8%/-6% YoY).</li><li>Despite policy support, management noted that advertisers in certain sectors like beauty &amp; personal care remained cautious on ad spending amid macro uncertainty.</li><li>Looking into 2Q25E, we forecast total revenue to remain largely flattish YoY at US$439mn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo reported 1Q25 results: net revenue was flattish YoY at US$397mn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income increased by 12% YoY to US$120mn, 26% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to the decline in S&amp;M/R&amp;D expenses (-8%/-6% YoY).Despite policy support, management noted that advertisers in certain sectors like beauty &amp; personal care remained cautious on ad spending amid macro uncertainty.Looking into 2Q25E, we forecast total revenue to remain largely flattish YoY at US$439mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - Flattish 1Q25 Topline; Leverage AI to Capture New Opportunities

<ul><li>Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107mn, 9% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to effective opex control.</li><li>FY24 net revenue was US$1.75bn, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis. For FY25E, the overall advertiser sentiment remains mixed.</li><li>Supported by the national subsidy program, certain verticals such as 3C and e-commerce have increased their ad budget, while other verticals such as cosmetics, personal care and games remain cautious on ad spending. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107mn, 9% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly attributable to effective opex control.FY24 net revenue was US$1.75bn, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis. For FY25E, the overall advertiser sentiment remains mixed.Supported by the national subsidy program, certain verticals such as 3C and e-commerce have increased their ad budget, while other verticals such as cosmetics, personal care and games remain cautious on ad spending. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - Advertiser Sentiment Remains Mixed; Stepping up AI Investment in FY25

<ul><li>Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates thanks to the stabilization of advertising revenue and better-than-expected growth of VAS revenue; non-GAAP net income grew by 2% YoY to US$139mn, beating consensus by 16% mainly due to top-line outperformance and enhanced operating efficiency.</li><li>Looking ahead, management is cautiously optimistic about the policy stimulus on the macro economy, but expects it will take time for the policy to show effects.</li><li>For 4Q24E, we forecast ad revenue to decline by 4% YoY on a constant currency basis, primarily due to the high-base effect and soft ad demand from certain consumption-related verticals. W</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates thanks to the stabilization of advertising revenue and better-than-expected growth of VAS revenue; non-GAAP net income grew by 2% YoY to US$139mn, beating consensus by 16% mainly due to top-line outperformance and enhanced operating efficiency.Looking ahead, management is cautiously optimistic about the policy stimulus on the macro economy, but expects it will take time for the policy to show effects.For 4Q24E, we forecast ad revenue to decline by 4% YoY on a constant currency basis, primarily due to the high-base effect and soft ad demand from certain consumption-related verticals. WContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q24 Results Beat on Olympic Event; 4Q24 Outlook Remains Under Pressure

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.</li><li>From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;</li><li>2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.com</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.comContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q25 Preview: Ad Business Under Pressure Amid Headwinds in Certain Verticals

We forecast Weibo’s 3Q25 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to US$442mn, slightly below our previous expectation, primarily due to weaker-than...

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - Flattish 1Q25 Topline; Leverage AI to Capture New Opportunities

We maintain our FY25-27E earnings forecast, and our unchanged TP of US$14.5 is based on 8x FY25E non-GAAP PE. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - Advertiser Sentiment Remains Mixed; Stepping up AI Investment in FY25

Weibo reported 4Q24 results on 13 Mar: net revenue was US$457mn, largely flat YoY on a constant currency basis and in line with Bloomberg consensus...

CMB International

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q24 Results Beat on Olympic Event; 4Q24 Outlook Remains Under Pressure

Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg...

CMB International

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our...

CMB International

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