Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 28th (reported today) which has an  aggregated short interest worth USD 23.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie Industries, Westpac, Suncorp, ANZ, Macquarie.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 28th (reported today) which has an  aggregated short interest worth USD 23.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie Industries, Westpac, Suncorp, ANZ, Macquarie.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie Industries

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> over the February to June period.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 19th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">MyState Ltd (MYS AU)</a>, Tassie's largest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>.</li>
<li>MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the MergeCo.  </li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241023/pdf/069g5vfmtptwtp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 2nd December Expected implementation on the 18th December. The IE (Kroll) says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>


On the 19th August, MyState Ltd (MYS AU), Tassie's largest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based Auswide Bank (ABA AU).
MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the MergeCo.  

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 2nd December Expected implementation on the 18th December. The IE (Kroll) says fair &amp; reasonable.


Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/MyState Ltd (MYS AU): 2nd Dec Merger Vote

<ul>
<li>Back on the 19th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">MyState Ltd (MYS AU)</a>, Tasmania’s biggest bank, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240819/pdf/066rhk5tz7gyr8.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a merger</a> agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Under the terms, MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the combined group.</li>
<li>This is done and is expected to be wrapped up in December. Today is the last day of trading for Auswide cum-FY24 final dividend. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 19th August, MyState Ltd (MYS AU), Tasmania’s biggest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based Auswide Bank (ABA AU).
Under the terms, MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the combined group.
This is done and is expected to be wrapped up in December. Today is the last day of trading for Auswide cum-FY24 final dividend. 


MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Suncorp (SUN AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie Industries

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

There could be 5 changes for the index in March. A few more names are close deletes. SIG's inclusion will add to passive inflows while MIN's...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/MyState Ltd (MYS AU): 2nd Dec Merger Vote

This is done. Trading tight - as it has done from the onset - at around a 1.3% gross spread. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look...

David Blennerhassett

MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Trading at terms - inclusive of Auswide's final dividend. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look to set up the trade should the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie Industries

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, James Hardie...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

There could be 5 changes for the index in March. A few more names are close deletes. SIG's inclusion will add to passive inflows while MIN's...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/MyState Ltd (MYS AU): 2nd Dec Merger Vote

This is done. Trading tight - as it has done from the onset - at around a 1.3% gross spread. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look...

David Blennerhassett

MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Trading at terms - inclusive of Auswide's final dividend. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look to set up the trade should the...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger