Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The insurance rate cycle continues to soften.</li><li>Competitive pressures remain the key short-term issue, with anecdotes of motor pricing down -5% to -20% and dwelling -5% to -10% after incentives.</li><li>Tower (TWR) delivered a strong FY25 trading update, lifting underlying NPAT guidance to NZ$100m–NZ$110m (previously NZ$70m–NZ$80m) on benign weather.</li></ul>

The insurance rate cycle continues to soften.Competitive pressures remain the key short-term issue, with anecdotes of motor pricing down -5% to -20% and dwelling -5% to -10% after incentives.Tower (TWR) delivered a strong FY25 trading update, lifting underlying NPAT guidance to NZ$100m–NZ$110m (previously NZ$70m–NZ$80m) on benign weather.

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest Edition 13—Cycling Along

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-lithium-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34827:1" rel="noopener">Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ofx-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8376:1" rel="noopener">OFX Group (OFX AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12499:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto Malaysia (AJI MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU), IDP Education (IEL AU), and Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: OFX Group (OFX AU),Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Ajinomoto Malaysia (AJI MK), Carnaby Resources (CNB AU), and Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)</a> is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crasus-chemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58630:1" rel="noopener">Crasus Chemical (646A JP)</a> spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine (8766 JP)</a> reportedly identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>. It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">IAG (IAG AU)</a> is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corporation-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings (3396 HK)</a> remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. </li>
</ul>



Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this Crasus Chemical (646A JP) spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.

Tokio Marine (8766 JP) reportedly identified Suncorp (SUN AU). It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. IAG (IAG AU) is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.

Legend Holdings (3396 HK) remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

<ul>
<li>Back in July, cashed-up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> was reportedly running a ruler over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Berkshire's recent investment in Tokio Marine appears to have jumpstarted its M&amp;A ambitions. Late August, Tokio Marine (also reportedly) identified Suncorp as its preferred takeover target </li>
<li>Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)</a> in 2024. IAG is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation. </li>
</ul>


Back in July, cashed-up Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) was reportedly running a ruler over Insurance Australia (IAG AU) or Suncorp (SUN AU).
Berkshire's recent investment in Tokio Marine appears to have jumpstarted its M&amp;A ambitions. Late August, Tokio Marine (also reportedly) identified Suncorp as its preferred takeover target 
Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024. IAG is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation. 


IAG AU: Greensill Settlement Removes Overhang. Tokio Marine Will Take Note

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest Edition 13—Cycling Along

Tower (TWR) delivered a strong FY25 trading update, lifting underlying NPAT guidance to NZ$100m–NZ$110m (previously NZ$70m–NZ$80m) on benign weather.

Forsyth Barr

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

IAG AU: Greensill Settlement Removes Overhang. Tokio Marine Will Take Note

Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play fopr Tokio Marine after it sold Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024. IAG is now...

David Blennerhassett

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