IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.</li>
<li>Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> on an FY2023 P/E basis.</li>
<li>Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.</li>
</ul>



Suncorp (SUN AU) agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.
Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to Insurance Australia (IAG AU) on an FY2023 P/E basis.
Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.


Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxs7w823ntzt.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdrew from discussions on MYOB</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxsfxcgwbpyz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q3 earnings</a> ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. </li>
<li>But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.</li>
</ul>



Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ withdrew from discussions on MYOB.

Q3 earnings ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. 
But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.


ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.</li>
<li>In our view, neither the fundraising nor the acquisition appear to be particularly well flagged. ANZ’s withdrawal from MYOB talks might be the most positive thing about the announcement.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.
In our view, neither the fundraising nor the acquisition appear to be particularly well flagged. ANZ’s withdrawal from MYOB talks might be the most positive thing about the announcement.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Dilute Now, Accrete Later. Still Appears Better than MYOB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> has announced that it is acquiring Suncorp Bank from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> for an all cash consideration of A$4.9bn.</li>
<li>ANZ will fund the Suncorp Bank acquisition by a fully underwritten 1:15 pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer to raise A$3.5bn at A$18.9/share, a 12% discount to TERP.</li>
<li>A small increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for the mortgage lending market will make it difficult for ACCC to deny approval for the acquisition.</li>
</ul>



Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) has announced that it is acquiring Suncorp Bank from Suncorp (SUN AU) for an all cash consideration of A$4.9bn.
ANZ will fund the Suncorp Bank acquisition by a fully underwritten 1:15 pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer to raise A$3.5bn at A$18.9/share, a 12% discount to TERP.
A small increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for the mortgage lending market will make it difficult for ACCC to deny approval for the acquisition.


ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Quantitative Analysis

<p>Subsequent to our earlier update a quarter ago, below we publish updated results from our dividend forecasting models. Our models take into account most recent reported fiscal year-end financials to provide updated results. We also discuss notable changes within our top 10 conviction list.</p>

Subsequent to our earlier update a quarter ago, below we publish updated results from our dividend forecasting models. Our models take into account most recent reported fiscal year-end financials to provide updated results. We also discuss notable changes within our top 10 conviction list.

Asia Dividend Forecasting | Quarterly Update 2.0

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to key peer, IAG, on an FY2023 P/E basis. The valuation gap can...

Arun George

ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

ANZ will issue A$3.5bn of equity - an insto block and a tradable rights offer to retail - to buy #7 bank SunCorp Bank. It adds heft, but the ACCC...

Travis Lundy

ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Dilute Now, Accrete Later. Still Appears Better than MYOB

ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.

Sumeet Singh

ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals

ANZ is acquiring Suncorp Bank for A$4.9bn to get a bigger shares of the Queensland market. There is an equity raise of A$3.5bn to partially fund...

Brian Freitas

Asia Dividend Forecasting | Quarterly Update 2.0

Subsequent to our Dividend Forecasting Original in Sep 2020, this is our second quarterly update. Our models take into account latest reported...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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