Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD’s revenue growth rate reached its historical low in 2022, but we believe it will recover in following two years.</li>
<li>JD’s operating margin hit its historical high in 2022 and we believe the improvement will continue.</li>
<li>We believe EPS will grow by more than 100% in 2022 and the stock has an upside of 42%.</li>
</ul>


JD’s revenue growth rate reached its historical low in 2022, but we believe it will recover in following two years.
JD’s operating margin hit its historical high in 2022 and we believe the improvement will continue.
We believe EPS will grow by more than 100% in 2022 and the stock has an upside of 42%.


JD.com (9618 HK): 2022, Historical Low Growth, But Historical High Margin.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dpc-dash-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36556:1" rel="noopener">DPC Dash (1405 HK)</a> aimed to raise around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in December. The company is now back with a revised PHIP which incorporates its FY22 performance.</li>
<li>The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 562 stores across 13 cities, as of Nov 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates from its refiled PHIP.</li>
</ul>



DPC Dash (1405 HK) aimed to raise around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in December. The company is now back with a revised PHIP which incorporates its FY22 performance.
The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 562 stores across 13 cities, as of Nov 2022.
In this note, we talk about the updates from its refiled PHIP.


DPC Dash Pre-IPO - Refiled PHIP Updates - Growth Picking up Again

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.</li>
<li>We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.
With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.
We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

<ul>
<li>From the time of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> announcement of the in-specie dividend, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> by around 35%.</li>
<li>Surprisingly, short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> has dropped in the last few months as the stock has continued to drop.</li>
<li>As with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> could sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> in the months following settlement. Or they could remove the overhang by placing a block.</li>
</ul>


From the time of Tencent (700 HK) announcement of the in-specie dividend, Meituan (3690 HK) has underperformed Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) by around 35%.
Surprisingly, short interest on Meituan (3690 HK) has dropped in the last few months as the stock has continued to drop.
As with JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Prosus (PRX NA) could sell Meituan (3690 HK) in the months following settlement. Or they could remove the overhang by placing a block.


Meituan (3690 HK): Tencent's In-Specie Div Settles in Two Weeks

<ul>
<li>On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.</li>
<li>At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.</li>
</ul>


On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.
In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.


Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Almost Here - Lesson from JD.com

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

JD.com (9618 HK): 2022, Historical Low Growth, But Historical High Margin.

JD’s revenue growth rate was the historical low in 2022. JD’s operating margin reached its historical high in 2022. We believe EPS will grow by...

Ming Lu

DPC Dash Pre-IPO - Refiled PHIP Updates - Growth Picking up Again

DPC Dash (1405 HK) aimed to raise around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in December. The company is now back with a revised PHIP which incorporates...

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

HSCEI constituents will declare 2022 results and dividends in the next few weeks. 2023 div futures are trading around fair, but there could be...

Brian Freitas

Meituan (3690 HK): Tencent's In-Specie Div Settles in Two Weeks

Meituan shares from Tencent's in-specie div settle in just over 2 weeks. Meituan has underperformed Tencent & Alibaba by 35% since announcement....

Brian Freitas

Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Almost Here - Lesson from JD.com

On 16th Nov 22, Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan. The US$17bn overhang...

Sumeet Singh

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