European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Argos’s strategic value remains underappreciated, despite JD.com walking away. A sale or internal turnaround could unlock up to £2 billion in value based on realistic, post-tax synergy assumptions.</li>
<li>Sainsbury acquired Argos for £1.4 billion in 2016, aiming for multichannel scale. While digital integration succeeded, long-term profit delivery has lagged — offering a compelling restructuring opportunity today.</li>
<li>My event-driven SOTP model shows 10–25% share price upside, with optionality from renewed M&amp;A interest, internal margin improvement, or capital allocation catalysts including divestment or spin-off.</li>
</ul>


Argos’s strategic value remains underappreciated, despite JD.com walking away. A sale or internal turnaround could unlock up to £2 billion in value based on realistic, post-tax synergy assumptions.
Sainsbury acquired Argos for £1.4 billion in 2016, aiming for multichannel scale. While digital integration succeeded, long-term profit delivery has lagged — offering a compelling restructuring opportunity today.
My event-driven SOTP model shows 10–25% share price upside, with optionality from renewed M&amp;A interest, internal margin improvement, or capital allocation catalysts including divestment or spin-off.


JD Walks from Argos – But Sainsbury's Valuation Case Strengthens

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery</li>
<li>H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF</li>
<li>SF Intra's structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense</li>
</ul>


HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery
H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF
SF Intra's structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense


Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.</li>
<li>On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.


ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.</li>
<li>The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.
The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


NIO HK/ADS Placement - Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

JD Walks from Argos – But Sainsbury's Valuation Case Strengthens

JD walked, but value didn’t. Argos remains a strategic prize; synergies + turnaround can unlock >£1.5bn. I see 10–25% upside in Sainsbury’s from...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

SF Intra's H125 results give us some valuable insights into China's on-demand retail segment, which has shown strong growth in recent periods.

Tracking Traffic

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIO HK/ADS Placement - Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn

NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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