Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s <strong>31 July 2025</strong> policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Markets liking the EU pledges to buy US energy products and military equipment as part of recent deal.</li>
<li>Power-Semi related higher with TXN buoyed by call that multi-year inventory correction is almost over.</li>
<li>Tesla emerges as Samsung's mystery fab customer, is a dramatic turn around for their recently ailing foundry business.</li>
</ul>


Markets liking the EU pledges to buy US energy products and military equipment as part of recent deal.
Power-Semi related higher with TXN buoyed by call that multi-year inventory correction is almost over.
Tesla emerges as Samsung's mystery fab customer, is a dramatic turn around for their recently ailing foundry business.


Japan Morning Connection: Energy Related and Tech Strong Pointing to a Good Start for Japan

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Capacity utilization at Sumco's largest customer, TSMC, jumped 10% in Q2, with another core customer, Renesas, showing consecutive improvements.</li>
<li>Surging AI chip demand and geopolitical shifts favoring non-Chinese suppliers are set to boost demand for high-end silicon wafers.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 0.7x book and 4.9x EV/EBITDA. These are levels we think the stock can make a meaningful upward advance from if the improvement in customer inventories broadens.</li>
</ul>


Capacity utilization at Sumco's largest customer, TSMC, jumped 10% in Q2, with another core customer, Renesas, showing consecutive improvements.
Surging AI chip demand and geopolitical shifts favoring non-Chinese suppliers are set to boost demand for high-end silicon wafers.
The stock trades at 0.7x book and 4.9x EV/EBITDA. These are levels we think the stock can make a meaningful upward advance from if the improvement in customer inventories broadens.


<ul>
<li>Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.</li>
<li>Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.</li>
<li>Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".</li>
</ul>


Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.
Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.
Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".


Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sumco (3436): So, This Is How Slumps Die

Unprecidented growth in customer inventory is what started Sumco's slump, but now customers are reporting increased capacity utilization, driven by...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Screen's numbers were a miss which might open a buy the dip opportunity. Reaction to Shin Etsu guidance may have been excessive. Names with high EU...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: Energy Related and Tech Strong Pointing to a Good Start for Japan

Energy related up as EU announces they will be purchasing US fuels, US pausing new restrictions on tech exports to China, Tesla's partnership with...

Andrew Jackson

Sumco (3436): So, This Is How Slumps Die

Unprecidented growth in customer inventory is what started Sumco's slump, but now customers are reporting increased capacity utilization, driven by...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Screen's numbers were a miss which might open a buy the dip opportunity. Reaction to Shin Etsu guidance may have been excessive. Names with high EU...

Andrew Jackson