Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally  46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Just one new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Bastion's off-market Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xanadu-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1270:1" rel="noopener">Xanadu Mines (XAM AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reject-shop-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:272:1" rel="noopener">Reject Shop (TRS AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jamco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14741:1" rel="noopener">Jamco Corp (7408 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally  46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Just one new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Bastion's off-market Offer for Xanadu Mines (XAM AU).
Key updates/news took place on: Reject Shop (TRS AU),ESR Group (1821 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP),Jamco Corp (7408 JP), and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Xanadu Mines, Reject Shop, ESR Group, Shibaura Elect., Jamco, Tsuruha/Welcia

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NVDA opening its AI ecosystem to the likes of Fujitsu and Qualcomm.</li>
<li>Intel's make-or-break 18A process Panther lake seems to be well received at first look.</li>
<li>Toyota announces Y3trn worth of loans for its Y6trn Industries acquisition, removing concerns for raise.</li>
</ul>


NVDA opening its AI ecosystem to the likes of Fujitsu and Qualcomm.
Intel's make-or-break 18A process Panther lake seems to be well received at first look.
Toyota announces Y3trn worth of loans for its Y6trn Industries acquisition, removing concerns for raise.


Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Since April 28th we traced a path for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s stock price, first <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-tactical-outlook-following-toyota-industries-6201-jp-privatization-rumors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (forecast: going down) and then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-7203-jp-post-earnings-outlook-amid-180b-estimated-u-s-tariff-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).</li>
<li>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
</li>
<li>
Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.
</li>
</ul>


Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.


Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Group (WJL</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener"> AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-road-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12581:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Road (1884 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12749:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Corp (9066 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17731:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Webjet Group (WJL AU), Nippon Road (1884 JP), Nissin Corp (9066 JP), Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP), and Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP).
Key updates/news took place on: Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), ESR Group (1821 HK), and Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Webjet, Nippon Road, Nissin Corp, Sumi Mitsui Construction, ESR, Oneconnect

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aichi-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4517:1" rel="noopener">Aichi Steel (5482 JP)</a> announced earnings on 25-April during market hours. Results were OK. Guidance was OK. The div was WAY up for Mar26. Shares fell. Then rose 26-April.</li>
<li>Aichi Steel is a Toyota Motors equity affiliate (26-27%), Toyota Industries, Toyota R.E., megabanks, the Kyoeikai, and Nippon Steel all have stakes. Nippon Steel recently reduced its position. </li>
<li>Activist Murakami has about 10% across two entities. This morning, the Company was to buy back 16%. WHO is selling? We don't know yet. Likely a mix. Details may matter.</li>
</ul>



Aichi Steel (5482 JP) announced earnings on 25-April during market hours. Results were OK. Guidance was OK. The div was WAY up for Mar26. Shares fell. Then rose 26-April.
Aichi Steel is a Toyota Motors equity affiliate (26-27%), Toyota Industries, Toyota R.E., megabanks, the Kyoeikai, and Nippon Steel all have stakes. Nippon Steel recently reduced its position. 
Activist Murakami has about 10% across two entities. This morning, the Company was to buy back 16%. WHO is selling? We don't know yet. Likely a mix. Details may matter.


[Japan Activism?] Toyota Group Equity Affiliate and Murakami Target Aichi Steel Does Large ToSTNeT-3

Japan

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

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Toyota Industries (6201 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Xanadu Mines, Reject Shop, ESR Group, Shibaura Elect., Jamco, Tsuruha/Welcia

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

May be further upside for Fujitsu following NVDA NVLink announcement, Intel's new product recieves positive feedback, Toyota discussing loan for...

Andrew Jackson

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View: Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

Toyota Motors pulled back 2 weeks to 2598: our model predicted an OVERSOLD condition in this scenario. Rumors of an accelerating privatization bid...

Nico Rosti

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Webjet, Nippon Road, Nissin Corp, Sumi Mitsui Construction, ESR, Oneconnect

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Activism?] Toyota Group Equity Affiliate and Murakami Target Aichi Steel Does Large ToSTNeT-3

Aichi Steel was a very low PBR stock a year ago. Murakami-san targeted it. It went up. Now the company did a large buyback at 0.7x book. Who sold?...

Travis Lundy

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