Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>15 minutes after I published what I thought was a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-denso-6902-secondary-sale-by-toyota-group-admiral-ackbar-says-it-s-a-trap" target="_blank" rel="noopener">considered analysis</a>, Denso dumps the details. I thought it might be a trap. It looks like a trap.</li>
<li>A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests, indeed, "It was a trap". </li>
<li>This giant offering is not bearish overhang but likely tilts bullish with greenshoe support, a large buyback, a new cross-holding reduction policy, and the follow-on effects from that.</li>
</ul>


15 minutes after I published what I thought was a considered analysis, Denso dumps the details. I thought it might be a trap. It looks like a trap.
A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests, indeed, "It was a trap". 
This giant offering is not bearish overhang but likely tilts bullish with greenshoe support, a large buyback, a new cross-holding reduction policy, and the follow-on effects from that.


Denso Offering, Buyback, and New Cross-Holding Reduction Policy - It WAS a Trap

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Reuters reported that multiple Toyota Group companies would sell ~10% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> worth ¥700bn in a secondary share sale by year-end.</li>
<li>The sellers would be Toyota, selling down to just over 20%, Toyota Industries (6201) (selling down a bit more than half, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-seiki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin Seiki (7259 JP)</a> selling its 2% stake. </li>
<li>Denso would buy back shares. This whole thing is both interesting and complicated so I discuss the interesting complications below. It looks bigger than it probably is.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Reuters reported that multiple Toyota Group companies would sell ~10% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) worth ¥700bn in a secondary share sale by year-end.
The sellers would be Toyota, selling down to just over 20%, Toyota Industries (6201) (selling down a bit more than half, and Aisin Seiki (7259 JP) selling its 2% stake. 
Denso would buy back shares. This whole thing is both interesting and complicated so I discuss the interesting complications below. It looks bigger than it probably is.


Huge Denso (6902) Secondary Sale by Toyota Group - Admiral Ackbar Says "It's A Trap!"

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As per Reuters, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> could look to sell up to 10% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> to raise around US$4.7bn before the end of the year.</li>
<li>Toyota is the company’s largest shareholder and its largest customer.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


As per Reuters, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) could look to sell up to 10% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) to raise around US$4.7bn before the end of the year.
Toyota is the company’s largest shareholder and its largest customer.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.


Denso Corp Placement - Possible Placement by Toyota to Raise US$4.7bn

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tkg-aikang-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9800:1" rel="noopener">TKG Aikang (022220 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Group (WJL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-commodities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) and TKG Aikang (022220 KS).
Key updates/news also took place on: Webjet Group (WJL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), and Toyota Industries (6201 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Taiyo Holdings, TKG Aikang, ENN Energy, Bright Smart Sec, Toyota Indd

<ul>
<li>For March 2026, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~33%, and a year-to-date average of 40%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For March 2026, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~33%, and a year-to-date average of 40%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, March 2026 Wrap: Rohm, Gunma Bank, Toyota Indust., Nippon Sheet Glass, Echo Marketing

Japan

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

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Toyota Industries (6201 JP)

Denso Offering, Buyback, and New Cross-Holding Reduction Policy - It WAS a Trap

Denso has announced the secondary offering of roughly 10% of shares out. It is heavily tilted to retail. And the simultaneous announcement of a...

Travis Lundy

Huge Denso (6902) Secondary Sale by Toyota Group - Admiral Ackbar Says "It's A Trap!"

Toyota Group will do a large secondary offering of Denso (6902) shares. Toyota, Toyota Industries, and Aishin will sell. This is more complicated...

Travis Lundy

Denso Corp Placement - Possible Placement by Toyota to Raise US$4.7bn

As per Reuters, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) could look to sell up to 10% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) to raise around US$4.7bn before the end of the year.

Sumeet Singh

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Taiyo Holdings, TKG Aikang, ENN Energy, Bright Smart Sec, Toyota Indd

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A, March 2026 Wrap: Rohm, Gunma Bank, Toyota Indust., Nippon Sheet Glass, Echo Marketing

For the month of March, 5 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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