HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.</li>
<li>There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.</li>
<li>YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pharmaceuticals-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>, we wouldn't be too surprised.</li>
</ul>


Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn't be too surprised.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;</li>
<li>Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; </li>
<li>However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;
Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; 
However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Fangzhou cannot get around the decreasing unit-price of drugs and the increasing role of medical insurance in chronic-disease treatment.It’s challenging to find patients willing to pay out of own pockets.</li>
<li>The internal dispute between the Founder and shareholders hasn’t ended, and related litigation is still pending. This makes us concerned about the stability of future business development and corporate governance. </li>
<li>Fangzhou has significant cash flow pressure. In the case of increasingly fierce competition in the industry, without successful business diversification/transformation, growth prospects is gloomy, Valuation should be lower than peers. </li>
</ul>


Fangzhou cannot get around the decreasing unit-price of drugs and the increasing role of medical insurance in chronic-disease treatment.It’s challenging to find patients willing to pay out of own pockets.
The internal dispute between the Founder and shareholders hasn’t ended, and related litigation is still pending. This makes us concerned about the stability of future business development and corporate governance. 
Fangzhou has significant cash flow pressure. In the case of increasingly fierce competition in the industry, without successful business diversification/transformation, growth prospects is gloomy, Valuation should be lower than peers. 


Pre-IPO Fangzhou Inc. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atour-lifestyle-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33481:1" rel="noopener">Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)</a>, is looking to raise around US$168m through a secondary selldown.</li>
<li>This will be the third selldown by Legend Capital in just over a year’s time. Hence, the deal is well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a secondary selldown.
This will be the third selldown by Legend Capital in just over a year’s time. Hence, the deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement - Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaopay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakaopay (377300 KS)</a> today.</li>
<li>Alipay (i.e. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today.
Alipay (i.e. Alibaba Group (9988 HK)) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

China

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

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Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pre-IPO Fangzhou Inc. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Fangzhou faces challenges with decreasing drug price due to VBP/NRDL negotiation. The internal disputes, litigation, cash flow pressure will lead...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement - Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a...

Sumeet Singh

Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today. Alipay will once again be free to...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

​Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pre-IPO Fangzhou Inc. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Fangzhou faces challenges with decreasing drug price due to VBP/NRDL negotiation. The internal disputes, litigation, cash flow pressure will lead...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement - Well Flagged Deal, past Selldowns Have Done Well

Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$168m through a...

Sumeet Singh

Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today. Alipay will once again be free to...

Sumeet Singh

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Fangzhou faces challenges with decreasing drug price due to VBP/NRDL negotiation. The internal disputes, litigation, cash flow pressure will lead...