HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While the HSI lost 5.1% YTD, the bottom-most 5 constituents were down an average of 45.8%. As we approach the year-end, we examine whether there is room for performance revival.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-aaf6a428-6d9d-4e25-80e7-18533df0745e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> is the best bet, as the anti-monopoly penalty is now behind it. The sell-off has also moderated, suggesting the market is refocusing on the merits.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> has a significant PER compression, leaving room for a rebound. However, the risk is more in a potential earnings downgrade. </li>
</ul>


While the HSI lost 5.1% YTD, the bottom-most 5 constituents were down an average of 45.8%. As we approach the year-end, we examine whether there is room for performance revival.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) is the best bet, as the anti-monopoly penalty is now behind it. The sell-off has also moderated, suggesting the market is refocusing on the merits.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) has a significant PER compression, leaving room for a rebound. However, the risk is more in a potential earnings downgrade. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.</li>
</ul>


We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.
Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.
In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.


Aequitas: ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings- Innolight, Shein, A/H Listings, Gcash

<ul>
<li>October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> next month.   </li>
<li>Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues. </li>
<li>November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.</li>
</ul>


October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) next month.   
Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues. 
November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.


HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 16.26% in January resulting in a 6.2% outperformance to its benchmark.  The portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 48% to 63% since inception on 10/1/24.</li>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha has generated 50% of its return from alpha and has a Sharpe ratio of 1.79 since inception.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 28%.</li>
<li>At the end of January, we reduced positions in the materials, communications, and conglomerate sectors and added positions in the food, energy, and manufacturing sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 16.26% in January resulting in a 6.2% outperformance to its benchmark.  The portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 48% to 63% since inception on 10/1/24.
Hong Kong Alpha has generated 50% of its return from alpha and has a Sharpe ratio of 1.79 since inception.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 28%.
At the end of January, we reduced positions in the materials, communications, and conglomerate sectors and added positions in the food, energy, and manufacturing sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (January 2026)

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.  </li>
<li>Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance.  We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.</li>
<li>Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.</li>
</ul>


China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.  
Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance.  We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.
Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.


EMERGING THEMES: China's Next 5 Year Plan

Hong Kong

Alibaba Health is the flagship healthcare platform of Alibaba Group, providing digital health services and resources. It operates pharmaceutical direct sales, an e-commerce platform for medications and health products, and offers healthcare and digital services including telemedicine consultations. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 1998.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alibaba Health (241 HK)

HK Strategy: Losers Turn Winners?

As we approach year-end, the laggards this year may potentially revive given their underperformance. Trip.com appears to be best positioned, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings- Innolight, Shein, A/H Listings, Gcash

We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong. This note contains some of the key takeaways from the upcoming listings.

Sumeet Singh

HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

With the HSI losing 2.5% so far today (the first trading day of Oct), it will be interesting to boomerang this Insight. Based on historical...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (January 2026)

At the end of January, we began to move out of materials and tech and into early cycle sectors. We continue with mid-month exposure adjustments: we...

David Mudd

EMERGING THEMES: China's Next 5 Year Plan

China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, outlining the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.Historically...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)