ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. </li>
<li>Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.</li>
<li>Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Astra International booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. 
Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.
Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Indonesia's Mirror Image

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>.</li>
<li>The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.</li>
<li>Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.</li>
</ul>



Astra International has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being BYD.
The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.
Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Opportunity Knocks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International's</a> results are a testament to both the company's resilience in the face of declining commodity prices, with autos. motorcycles and finance take up the reins of driving growth.</li>
<li>Astra continues to introduce new EV models with a focus on hybrid variants, which have been selling well. It is increasingly investing in sustainable businesses including geothermal and nickel assets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> remains a well-managed core proxy for Indonesia's key growth drivers, with new investments aligning the company with the country's growth drivers. Valuations are attractive versus history.</li>
</ul>



Astra International's results are a testament to both the company's resilience in the face of declining commodity prices, with autos. motorcycles and finance take up the reins of driving growth.
Astra continues to introduce new EV models with a focus on hybrid variants, which have been selling well. It is increasingly investing in sustainable businesses including geothermal and nickel assets.

Astra International (ASII IJ) remains a well-managed core proxy for Indonesia's key growth drivers, with new investments aligning the company with the country's growth drivers. Valuations are attractive versus history.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Driving Towards Future Sustainability

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is the largest buy (XSOE) - estimated flow $44m. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-sab-d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF)</a> is the 2nd largest buy - estimated flow $40m.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wistron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2189:1" rel="noopener">Wistron Corp (3231 TT)</a> is the largest sell - estimated flow $68m. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)</a> is the 2nd largest sell - estimated flow $59m.</li>
<li>Our estimate for the total value of new constituent buys is $1.38bn. We expect deletions to the value of $1.41bn to be sold down across the 3 funds.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is the largest buy (XSOE) - estimated flow $44m. Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF) is the 2nd largest buy - estimated flow $40m.

Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is the largest sell - estimated flow $68m. POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is the 2nd largest sell - estimated flow $59m.
Our estimate for the total value of new constituent buys is $1.38bn. We expect deletions to the value of $1.41bn to be sold down across the 3 funds.


WisdomTree Oct '23 Rebalance: Estimated Flows for All Adds and Deletes in DEM, XSOE & DGS

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

Astra International (ASII IJ)