External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The RBI kept repo rates unchanged but more importantly pivoted its stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral”, signalling an openness to rate cuts over the coming months</li><li>Although system-wide liquidity has organically improved since our most recent publication on the liquidity conundrum, deposit growth is likely to remain a function of growth in the broader money supply (M3) and inflation targets</li><li>More importantly, in line with its ‘satark’ motto, the RBI has categorically highlighted the unscrupulous practices of NBFC/HFCs to pursue growth and profitability at the cost of compliance and fair practices, with an unusually stern directive to such regulated entities to proactively mend their ways.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The RBI kept repo rates unchanged but more importantly pivoted its stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral”, signalling an openness to rate cuts over the coming monthsAlthough system-wide liquidity has organically improved since our most recent publication on the liquidity conundrum, deposit growth is likely to remain a function of growth in the broader money supply (M3) and inflation targetsMore importantly, in line with its ‘satark’ motto, the RBI has categorically highlighted the unscrupulous practices of NBFC/HFCs to pursue growth and profitability at the cost of compliance and fair practices, with an unusually stern directive to such regulated entities to proactively mend their ways.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: ‘Satark’ NBFCs, RBI Pivots to a Stern Warning

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) earnings were below our estimates on account of elevated provisioning (2.1%, adjusted for management overlay), and NIM compression, offsetting strong AUM growth (+31% YoY)</li><li>Loan growth continued to remain robust across segments except rural B2C (asset quality challenges) and urban sales finance (regulatory embargo)</li><li>While the management had indicated an uptick in credit costs during FY25, the sharp spike has been a negative surprise, although we expect some normalisation during H2FY25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) earnings were below our estimates on account of elevated provisioning (2.1%, adjusted for management overlay), and NIM compression, offsetting strong AUM growth (+31% YoY)Loan growth continued to remain robust across segments except rural B2C (asset quality challenges) and urban sales finance (regulatory embargo)While the management had indicated an uptick in credit costs during FY25, the sharp spike has been a negative surprise, although we expect some normalisation during H2FY25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Torrent Pharma, ICICI Prudential Life, Supreme Industries

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Torrent Pharma, ICICI Prudential Life

<ul><li>India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on select categories of consumer credit</li><li>Our discussions with experts suggest that the RBI’s note of caution is largely centred on small-ticket personal loans (STPL) (ticket size</li><li>The RBI’s risk-weight measures are likely to increase the hurdle rate for banks and NBFCs towards unsecured consumer loans, resulting in a material growth deceleration</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on select categories of consumer creditOur discussions with experts suggest that the RBI’s note of caution is largely centred on small-ticket personal loans (STPL) (ticket sizeThe RBI’s risk-weight measures are likely to increase the hurdle rate for banks and NBFCs towards unsecured consumer loans, resulting in a material growth decelerationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: Emerging Long-Tail Risks in Unsecured Credit

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services is an Indian non-banking financial company primarily focused on rural and semi-urban markets. It provides vehicle loans for cars, tractors, and commercial vehicles, as well as SME financing, housing finance, personal loans, and offers insurance broking and mutual fund distribution services. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1991.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS IN)

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Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS IN)

Leveraged Financials: ‘Satark’ NBFCs, RBI Pivots to a Stern Warning

We continue to reiterate our preference towards large banks (top pick: SBIN, ICICIBC) over NBFCs (Top pick: BAF) in the current environment.

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Torrent Pharma, ICICI Prudential Life, Supreme Industries

Bajaj Finance (BAF) earnings were below our estimates on account of elevated provisioning (2.1%, adjusted for management overlay), and NIM...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Torrent Pharma, ICICI Prudential Life

Bajaj Finance (BAF) earnings were below our estimates on account of elevated provisioning (2.1%, adjusted for management overlay), and NIM...

HDFC Securities

Leveraged Financials: Emerging Long-Tail Risks in Unsecured Credit

India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on...

HDFC Securities

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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