Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (9901 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> in December while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.7% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$10.89bn (US$1.4bn) with over 1 day of ADV to trade in the adds and the delete.</li>
<li>The index committee has net added 1 stock to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> this year to go from 82 to 83 constituents. Reaching the 100-member target will drag into 2026.</li>
</ul>



Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index in December while New World Development (17 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.7% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$10.89bn (US$1.4bn) with over 1 day of ADV to trade in the adds and the delete.
The index committee has net added 1 stock to the Hang Seng Index this year to go from 82 to 83 constituents. Reaching the 100-member target will drag into 2026.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Still Baby Steps to Get to 100 Members

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.</li>
<li>Short interest is especially large in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotruk-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19764:1" rel="noopener">Sinotruk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a> and inclusion could set off some short covering.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19/87 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK).</a>
</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Swire Pacific (19/87 HK)/Swire Properties (1972 HK) and Hang Lung (10 HK)/Hang Lung Properties (101 HK).



HK CEO & Director Dealings (19th Aug 2024): Merlin Selling Swire Pac/Props; Chans Buying Hang Lung

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption</li>
<li>The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise</li>
<li>However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name</li>
</ul>


HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption
The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise
However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name


Hang Lung Properties 101 HK: Dragged by China Slowing Luxury Retail, but Stock Too Cheap to Ignore

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>China ETF flows were steady for the week, however Southbound Connect flows were negative for the first time since February.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>  shares standout in the luxury brand sector as Miu Miu sales surged.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> slightly beat estimates but still have BioSecure Act overhang.</li>
<li>Property development firms <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> were hurt by poor results, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> saw earnings miss estimates.</li>
</ul>


China ETF flows were steady for the week, however Southbound Connect flows were negative for the first time since February.
Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)  shares standout in the luxury brand sector as Miu Miu sales surged.  WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) slightly beat estimates but still have BioSecure Act overhang.
Property development firms Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Wharf Holdings (4 HK) were hurt by poor results, while New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) saw earnings miss estimates.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 2)

Hong Kong

Hang Lung Properties is a leading property developer and investor with a diverse portfolio in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company specializes in developing, selling, and leasing premium commercial complexes, including shopping malls and office premises, as well as residential properties. It was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
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Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Still Baby Steps to Get to 100 Members

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Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

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HK CEO & Director Dealings (19th Aug 2024): Merlin Selling Swire Pac/Props; Chans Buying Hang Lung

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. Of interest is Merlin Bingham Swire selling...

David Blennerhassett