IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only). </li>
<li>This week, the highest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> </li>
<li>The lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-pharmaceutical-industries-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19399:1" rel="noopener">Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)</a> </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only). 
This week, the highest gross spreads are Razer Inc (1337 HK), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Irongate Group (IAP AU), 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 
The lowest gross spreads are China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU), Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP), Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU) 


Merger Arb Mondays - Razer, Sezzle, Irongate, 51job, Link, Guodian, Crown Resorts

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. </li>
<li>Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s implied stub has overshot the mark</li>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. 
Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in Prosus (PRX NA)'s implied stub has overshot the mark
The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

<ul>
<li>The consortium has improved the offer price by 6.6% to $61.00 in cash per ADS. The consortium represents 54.9% of the voting rights.</li>
<li>The Board intends to recommend shareholders vote in favour of the transaction. The transaction is expected to close during the first half of 2022.</li>
<li>The combination of the improved offer price and the tech shares sell-off improves the chance of meeting the two-thirds shareholder approval threshold. At last close, the gross spread is 7.0%. </li>
</ul>


The consortium has improved the offer price by 6.6% to $61.00 in cash per ADS. The consortium represents 54.9% of the voting rights.
The Board intends to recommend shareholders vote in favour of the transaction. The transaction is expected to close during the first half of 2022.
The combination of the improved offer price and the tech shares sell-off improves the chance of meeting the two-thirds shareholder approval threshold. At last close, the gross spread is 7.0%. 


51job’s Improved $61 Offer Gets the Board Onside

<ul>
<li>Back on the 12 January this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc (JOBS US)</a> announced the Offeror had proposed reducing the merger consideration from US$79.05 in cash per common share to US$57.25.</li>
<li>Yesterday 51job said it has <a href="https://ir.51job.com/ir/php/2022/PreRelease20220301.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, a 6.55% bump in terms, but still 22.8% down the initial terms. </li>
<li>Presumably, the amended proposal still requires no PRC regulatory filing. This transaction appears to be done this time, with completion in the 2Q22.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 12 January this year, 51 Job Inc (JOBS US) announced the Offeror had proposed reducing the merger consideration from US$79.05 in cash per common share to US$57.25.
Yesterday 51job said it has entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, a 6.55% bump in terms, but still 22.8% down the initial terms. 
Presumably, the amended proposal still requires no PRC regulatory filing. This transaction appears to be done this time, with completion in the 2Q22.


51job (JOB US)'s Offer Price Back Up To $61

<ul>
<li>For the month of February, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~36%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~36%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


China

51job, Inc. provides integrated human resource services in China, with a strong focus on recruitment related services.  The Company's recruitment related services are delivered in both print and online formats.

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51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)

Merger Arb Mondays - Razer, Sezzle, Irongate, 51job, Link, Guodian, Crown Resorts

This week, the merger arb situations with the highest gross spreads are Razer, Sezzle, Irongate Group, 51jobs, Link Administration.

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

51job’s Improved $61 Offer Gets the Board Onside

The consortium has improved its offer by 6.6% from $57.25 to $61.00 per ADS. The combination of the improved offer and the tech shares sell-off...

Arun George

51job (JOB US)'s Offer Price Back Up To $61

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.0%/22.9%. That's very attractive. And it looks done this time. But caution is required given how this...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: February 2022 Roundup

For the month of February, 12 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

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