Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed</li>
<li>There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times</li>
<li>Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.</li>
</ul>


The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.


HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: Index heavyweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (HSBA LN)</a> is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.</li>
<li>
Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.</li>
<li>
Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.</li>
</ul>



Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.

Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.

Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.


HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Despite our bullish outlook, we see some concerning developments that lead us to believe this current consolidation is likely to continue for the foreseeable future--as initially outlined on July 14</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook.
Despite our bullish outlook, we see some concerning developments that lead us to believe this current consolidation is likely to continue for the foreseeable future--as initially outlined on July 14


Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Energy, Gold Miners, Staples, Financials

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.</li>
<li>Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.</li>
<li>There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.
Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.
There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.


Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings Plc is a global universal bank and financial services organization. It provides a wide range of services including retail banking, wealth management, commercial banking, and investment banking, along with products such as credit cards, mortgages, asset management, and insurance. The company was founded in British Hong Kong in 1865 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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HSBC (5 HK)

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Energy, Gold Miners, Staples, Financials

Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Actionable Themes: Energy, Gold Miners, Consumer Staples, Services, and Financials

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

​HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Baba, Meituan, Tencent, Kb Laminates, Zj Innolight

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo, Baba, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Energy, Gold Miners, Staples, Financials

Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Actionable Themes: Energy, Gold Miners, Consumer Staples, Services, and Financials

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.