Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</p><p>Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.</p><p>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.</p><p>The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.</p>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Kerry Group has been busy of late.</p>
<p>Back in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> IPO'ed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> as discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/uGPdd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery</a></em>.</p>
<p>Last month <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Properties (683 HK)</a> ("KPL") and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> ("KLN") <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0210/2021021000043.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>.  This is an ongoing transaction - see <em><a href="https://skr.ma/D9RK7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer</a></em>. KLN announced last night the composite document has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0308/2021030801425.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> potentially up to the 16 August 201. </p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shangri-la-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19690:1" rel="noopener">Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)</a>, majority-owned by the Kerry Group, is well up on its March 2020 COVID low, and up 9.5% YTD.  Around half of its hotels are in China, which have witnessed a strong uptick in local leisure and corporate traveling, generating positive EBITDA as early as June last year, the first time since the first outbreak of the pandemic.</div>
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<div>Currently trading at 0.6x P/B against a pre-COVID average multiple of 0.8x., this is worth a second look.</div>
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<div>More below the fold.</div>

The Kerry Group has been busy of late.
Back in December, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) IPO'ed Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) as discussed by Sumeet Singh in Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.
Last month Kerry Properties (683 HK) ("KPL") and Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) ("KLN") announced a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  S.F. Holding (002352 CH).  This is an ongoing transaction - see Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer. KLN announced last night the composite document has been delayed potentially up to the 16 August 201. 

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK), majority-owned by the Kerry Group, is well up on its March 2020 COVID low, and up 9.5% YTD.  Around half of its hotels are in China, which have witnessed a strong uptick in local leisure and corporate traveling, generating positive EBITDA as early as June last year, the first time since the first outbreak of the pandemic.

Currently trading at 0.6x P/B against a pre-COVID average multiple of 0.8x., this is worth a second look.

More below the fold.

Event-Driven

Jinmao Hotel & Jinmao (China) Hotel Investments and Management Limited / Event-Driven

Jinmao Hotel & Jinmao (China) Hotel Investments and Management Limited

<p>After gaining ~40% in the three trading days to close last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinmao-hotel-jinmao-china-hotel-investments-and-management-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16994:1" rel="noopener">Jinmao Hotel &amp; Jinmao (China) Hotel Investments and Management Limited (6139 HK)</a> (Jinmao Hotel) was suspended this morning "<em>pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers</em>".</p>
<p>Jinmao Hotel is 66.77%-held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35:1" rel="noopener">China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK)</a>, which in turn is ultimately controlled by SOE Sinochem Group.</p>
<p>Back on the 23 January, Jinmao Hotel <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0123/2020012300570.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had been informed by Sinochem that it was planning a strategic restructuring. Details of the restructuring plan and its implementation were subject to relevant approval and regulatory procedures.</p>
<p>With an Offer potentially forthcoming, below is a cursory overview of Jinmao Hotel, how an Offer may unfold, and how this may affect China Jinmao.</p>

After gaining ~40% in the three trading days to close last week, Jinmao Hotel &amp; Jinmao (China) Hotel Investments and Management Limited (6139 HK) (Jinmao Hotel) was suspended this morning "pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers".
Jinmao Hotel is 66.77%-held by China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK), which in turn is ultimately controlled by SOE Sinochem Group.
Back on the 23 January, Jinmao Hotel announced it had been informed by Sinochem that it was planning a strategic restructuring. Details of the restructuring plan and its implementation were subject to relevant approval and regulatory procedures.
With an Offer potentially forthcoming, below is a cursory overview of Jinmao Hotel, how an Offer may unfold, and how this may affect China Jinmao.

Jinmao Hotels (6139 HK) In The Cross Hairs

Jardine Matheson Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-hldgs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-hldgs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP)</a> ratio is back down to its long-term average - yet JM has ample room for more buybacks; and JS may still privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP)</a>.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Jardine and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



The Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP) / Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP) ratio is back down to its long-term average - yet JM has ample room for more buybacks; and JS may still privatise Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP).



Preceding my comments on Jardine and Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.





StubWorld: The Jardine Maths Over Strategic

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

China Overseas Land & Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Carrie Lam has announced that the government will withdraw the extradition bill, a move that is expected to cheer the stock market. In this report, we have identified a couple of beaten-down value names that could participate in the short term rally especially those in the real estate and tourism-related sector. Some of the names mentioned also pay decent yield ranging from 2-7%. </p>

Carrie Lam has announced that the government will withdraw the extradition bill, a move that is expected to cheer the stock market. In this report, we have identified a couple of beaten-down value names that could participate in the short term rally especially those in the real estate and tourism-related sector. Some of the names mentioned also pay decent yield ranging from 2-7%. 

Hong Kong

The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates and manages hotels, food, beverage outlets, and clubs. The Company also invests in properties.

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Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels (45 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

Currently we see 28 potential inclusions & 22 deletions from the HSCI at the Sep rebalance. Most of the inclusions will join Stock Connect while...

Brian Freitas

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Stay Safe

Based on the average price to book - pre-COVID - I would expect around 33% upside from here, or HK$10.80/share, where it traded as recently as May...

David Blennerhassett

Jinmao Hotels (6139 HK) In The Cross Hairs

After gaining ~40% in the three trading days to close last week, Jinmao Hotel & Jinmao (China) Hotel Investments and Management Limited (6139...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: The Jardine Maths Over Strategic

This week in StubWorld ... The Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP) / Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP) ratio is back down to its long-term average -...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Value Names: Short Term Rally

Carrie Lam has announced that the government will withdraw the extradition bill, a move that is expected to cheer the stock market. In this report,...

Henry Soediarko

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