Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion (533 HK)</a>'s spectacular Scheme fail, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill  (878 HK)</a> appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.</li>
<li>Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.</li>
<li>Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. </li>
</ul>


After Goldlion (533 HK)'s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 


Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q&amp;M aims to improve margins after expansion phase, says Phillip Securities, indicating positive outlook for the company. </li><li>DBS remains optimistic on GuocoLand following strong 1HFY2025 performance, highlighting potential growth opportunities. </li><li>Wilmar faces challenges in China operations, but UOB Kay Hian anticipates a brighter future ahead, suggesting positive changes. Analysts raise DBS target prices above $51, predicting capital returns for investors.</li></ul>

Q&amp;M aims to improve margins after expansion phase, says Phillip Securities, indicating positive outlook for the company. DBS remains optimistic on GuocoLand following strong 1HFY2025 performance, highlighting potential growth opportunities. Wilmar faces challenges in China operations, but UOB Kay Hian anticipates a brighter future ahead, suggesting positive changes. Analysts raise DBS target prices above $51, predicting capital returns for investors.

Singapore Market Roundup (12-Feb-2025): Q&M aims to improve margins post expansion: Phillip Securities.

<ul><li>Phillip Securities believes Q&amp;M will reverse margin trends as expansion phase ends; DBS bullish on GuocoLand after strong 1HFY2025 results.</li><li>UOB Kay Hian optimistic about Wilmar's improving China operations; analysts raise DBS's target prices above $51 on strong capital returns.</li><li>Analysts positive on CLAR post FY2024 results; OCBC Investment Research raises DBS's target price to $50 after record profits in FY2024 under Piyush Gupta's leadership.</li></ul>

Phillip Securities believes Q&amp;M will reverse margin trends as expansion phase ends; DBS bullish on GuocoLand after strong 1HFY2025 results.UOB Kay Hian optimistic about Wilmar's improving China operations; analysts raise DBS's target prices above $51 on strong capital returns.Analysts positive on CLAR post FY2024 results; OCBC Investment Research raises DBS's target price to $50 after record profits in FY2024 under Piyush Gupta's leadership.

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Feb-2025): Q&M reversing margin trends as expansion phase ends - Phillip Securities.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of January 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~57%, excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>'s massive takeunder.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of January 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~57%, excluding Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)'s massive takeunder.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share

<ul>
<li>LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks</li>
</ul>


LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.

Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

Hong Kong

Guoco Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties as well as provides stock, commodity and bullion broking, insurance, and fund management services.

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Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

The outcome for Soundwill was not a big surprise. However, expect current and future illiquid small-cap arbs to trade wide(r) if there is a whiff...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Market Roundup (12-Feb-2025): Q&M aims to improve margins post expansion: Phillip Securities.

Analysts are optimistic about Q&M, GuocoLand, Wilmar, and DBS with positive outlooks on margin trends, performance, future growth, and target prices.

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Feb-2025): Q&M reversing margin trends as expansion phase ends - Phillip Securities.

Analysts are optimistic about multiple Singaporean companies such as Q&M, GuocoLand, Wilmar, and DBS, with target prices rising and strong...

Singapore Market Roundup

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

The outcome for Soundwill was not a big surprise. However, expect current and future illiquid small-cap arbs to trade wide(r) if there is a whiff...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Market Roundup (12-Feb-2025): Q&M aims to improve margins post expansion: Phillip Securities.

Analysts are optimistic about Q&M, GuocoLand, Wilmar, and DBS with positive outlooks on margin trends, performance, future growth, and target prices.

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Feb-2025): Q&M reversing margin trends as expansion phase ends - Phillip Securities.

Analysts are optimistic about multiple Singaporean companies such as Q&M, GuocoLand, Wilmar, and DBS, with target prices rising and strong...

Singapore Market Roundup

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share

For the month of January, 14 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett