Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>, it seemed appropriate to revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group (53 HK)</a>. Just as well - it is totally bombed out. </li>
<li>I see Guoco's implied stub - net of GuocoLand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-leong-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6602:1" rel="noopener">Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rank-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22117:1" rel="noopener">Rank Group (RNK LN)</a> - at a decade low.</li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family reloaded an Offer for Guoco. Which subsequently failed. Time for the family to step up. Again.</li>
</ul>


After GuocoLand (GUOL SP)'s Offer for Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK), it seemed appropriate to revisit Guoco Group (53 HK). Just as well - it is totally bombed out. 
I see Guoco's implied stub - net of GuocoLand, Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK), Bank of East Asia (23 HK), and Rank Group (RNK LN) - at a decade low.
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family reloaded an Offer for Guoco. Which subsequently failed. Time for the family to step up. Again.


Guoco (53 HK): Now Even A Deeper Value Play

<ul>
<li>You might have to go all the back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.</li>
<li>Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>
</li>
<li>IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.</li>
</ul>


You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)

IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.


Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>On September 21, 2026, Tokyo Tatemono and UBS invested $859 million in an Australian industrial partnership.</li><li>MA Financial acquired a 50% stake in a Melbourne mall for $233 million and launched a retail fund.</li><li>Ichigo Hotel REIT faced an 11% profit drop due to Japan's tourism slowdown amid local demand challenges.</li></ul>

On September 21, 2026, Tokyo Tatemono and UBS invested $859 million in an Australian industrial partnership.MA Financial acquired a 50% stake in a Melbourne mall for $233 million and launched a retail fund.Ichigo Hotel REIT faced an 11% profit drop due to Japan's tourism slowdown amid local demand challenges.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Sep-2026): APAC Real Estate Updates: People News September 2026

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. </li>
<li>~67%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a> (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a> at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". </li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.</li>
</ul>


I see Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. 
~67%-Held GuocoLand (GUOL SP) (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK) at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". 
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.


Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>DBS's Foo raises GuocoLand target price to $3.40 after strong FY2026 earnings.</li><li>UOBKH sees CDL, YZJ, and MPACT as STI laggards to watch for recovery.</li><li>Citi suggests UOL may sell assets to finance Marina Square redevelopment.</li></ul>

DBS's Foo raises GuocoLand target price to $3.40 after strong FY2026 earnings.UOBKH sees CDL, YZJ, and MPACT as STI laggards to watch for recovery.Citi suggests UOL may sell assets to finance Marina Square redevelopment.

Singapore Market Roundup (02-Sep-2026): DBS's Foo boosts GuocoLand target price to $3.40

Hong Kong

Guoco Group Limited is an investment holding company with diversified operations across Asia and Europe. Its core businesses include property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, financial services, and principal investments. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Guoco (53 HK)

Guoco (53 HK): Now Even A Deeper Value Play

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PE and/or a VC outfit blocking deals are rare. Which may suggest LVC doesn't want that moniker. You could therefore, extrapolate that line of...

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Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Sep-2026): APAC Real Estate Updates: People News September 2026

On September 21, 2026, major APAC real estate moves included $859M investments, acquisitions, leadership changes, and profit drops amid Japan's...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Guoco remains a potential privatisation play; and/or a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of the key listcos - around a decade low. The...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Market Roundup (02-Sep-2026): DBS's Foo boosts GuocoLand target price to $3.40

DBS raises GuocoLand's target price to $3.40 post-FY2026 earnings. UOBKH identifies CDL, YZJ, and MPACT as STI laggards. Citi hints UOL may sell...

Singapore Market Roundup

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