'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/055/original/2020-05-13_05-37-45.png?1589315906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>CASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate since 2008/9. With still over two-thirds of companies yet to report, there is more 'pain' ahead in this elongated 'season' of announcements. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/056/original/2020-05-13_06-21-24.png?1589318495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133056"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/057/original/2020-05-13_06-22-14.png?1589318598" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133057"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies yesterday:-<div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 269 results announcements was 117:23:129. The average change in Results Score was -0.8.</li>
<li>For the 129 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 39:7:83, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 213 companies declaring full-year results, 46% made forecasts for the current year.</li>
<li>
313 companies will announce on today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai (4523 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' scoring results were from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Electric (6641 JP)</a>, respectively. </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate since 2008/9. With still over two-thirds of companies yet to report, there is more 'pain' ahead in this elongated 'season' of announcements. Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies yesterday:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 269 results announcements was 117:23:129. The average change in Results Score was -0.8.
For the 129 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 39:7:83, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 213 companies declaring full-year results, 46% made forecasts for the current year.

313 companies will announce on today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Sony (6758 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP),  and Eisai (4523 JP). 
Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' scoring results were from  GMO Internet (9449 JP)  and Nissin Electric (6641 JP), respectively. 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/035/original/2020-03-15_07-07-04.png?1584223644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123035"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-opportunity-knocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37049" rel="noopener">Opportunity Knocks?</a> Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/034/original/2020-03-15_06-53-01.png?1584222882" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123034"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/036/original/2020-03-15_07-18-49.png?1584224347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123036"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/037/original/2020-03-15_07-23-55.png?1584224666" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123037"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Who’s Swimming Naked?</a> cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/039/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2024%2020.jpeg?1584225464" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123039"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/040/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2026%2031.jpeg?1584225508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123040"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/041/original/File%202020-03-15%207%2044%2021.jpeg?1584225894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123041"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]</div>CONTAINING COVID - According to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data</a> from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/038/original/2020-03-15_07-34-05.png?1584225268" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123038"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • oann.com</div>KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our Opportunity Knocks? Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.Source • Japan AnalyticsIT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on Who’s Swimming Naked? cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]CONTAINING COVID - According to data from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. Source • oann.comKEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
Last Week in Event SPACE ...
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of East Asia (23 HK)</a> and Elliott enter into an uneasy truce amidst a strategic review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maeda-road-construction-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2168:1" rel="noopener">Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP)</a> has a Monty Hall Problem. Investors have a Monty Hall Problem Problem. The most important thing for investors to figure out is not what the right answer is, but whether the other investors out there will be able to figure out and act on the right answer. This is not clear.   </li>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wheelock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:52:1" rel="noopener">Wheelock (20 HK)</a>'s privatisation, the key questions centre on timing, dividends and what, if any, changes to the scrip portion may come.</li>
<li>The combination of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> vote and what appears to be OJK approval would mean that a couple of the major conditions to complete the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a> deal have been met or are on the road to being met.</li>
<li>The share price fall in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> led to possibilities, and with the results out now, leads to potential issues with the buyback Tender Offer.</li>
<li>Perhaps 75% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings (8699 JP)</a> holders may tender, at a minimum. That is not terribly bullish on back-end and suggests disappointment that the controlling holder is getting out.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.</li>
</ul>
</div>
(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)


Last Week in Event SPACE ...




Bank Of East Asia (23 HK) and Elliott enter into an uneasy truce amidst a strategic review.

Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) has a Monty Hall Problem. Investors have a Monty Hall Problem Problem. The most important thing for investors to figure out is not what the right answer is, but whether the other investors out there will be able to figure out and act on the right answer. This is not clear.   
For Wheelock (20 HK)'s privatisation, the key questions centre on timing, dividends and what, if any, changes to the scrip portion may come.
The combination of the Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) vote and what appears to be OJK approval would mean that a couple of the major conditions to complete the Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) deal have been met or are on the road to being met.
The share price fall in Oriental Land (4661 JP) led to possibilities, and with the results out now, leads to potential issues with the buyback Tender Offer.
Perhaps 75% of Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) holders may tender, at a minimum. That is not terribly bullish on back-end and suggests disappointment that the controlling holder is getting out.




Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.


(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Bank of East Asia, Maeda Road, Wheelock, Bk Permata, Oriental Land, Sawada

Travis Lundy

As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oriental-land-buyback-tender-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36204" rel="noopener">Oriental Land Buyback Tender Offer</a>, on 30 January this year when they announced Q3 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> also launched a buyback tender offer which was designed to buy back shares from one of its large cross-holders, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>. It did so using the format of an Own Share Tender Offer, which creates strange issues around how much money actually comes out of it for most shareholders. It was launched at a price (¥13830) which was below the market and that was, itself, a reason why most people would not have wanted to sell shares into the Tender Offer. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/167/original/Screenshot%202020-03-03%20at%204.09.48%20PM.png?1583223014" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121167"></figure>It looked like the Partial Tender would go fine. It was below market, and there was friction in the thing (for more on the friction, which is real for all except for a small minority of market participants, please read the details in the original piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oriental-land-buyback-tender-offer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).Shares traded above ¥14000 for almost all of the next two weeks. Then coronavirus fears started, then people in the west started getting more worried. There were fears of large crowds and rumors that Tokyo Disneyland might close temporarily. In the US, Donald Trump told everyone not to worry, which of course made fears worse. Shares dropped sharply in the last week of February. This presented an opportunity for some market participants (I noted the put option in the previous insight, and only a few people contacted me to discuss).The share price fall led to possibilities, and with the results out now, leads to potential issues, discussed below.And it turns out that Tokyo Disneyland <a href="http://www.olc.co.jp/ja/news/news_olc/20200228_1/main/0/link/0228.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a temporary closure, from 29 February to 16 March, on the 28th of February.

As discussed in Oriental Land Buyback Tender Offer, on 30 January this year when they announced Q3 results, Oriental Land (4661 JP) also launched a buyback tender offer which was designed to buy back shares from one of its large cross-holders, Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP). It did so using the format of an Own Share Tender Offer, which creates strange issues around how much money actually comes out of it for most shareholders. It was launched at a price (¥13830) which was below the market and that was, itself, a reason why most people would not have wanted to sell shares into the Tender Offer. It looked like the Partial Tender would go fine. It was below market, and there was friction in the thing (for more on the friction, which is real for all except for a small minority of market participants, please read the details in the original piece here).Shares traded above ¥14000 for almost all of the next two weeks. Then coronavirus fears started, then people in the west started getting more worried. There were fears of large crowds and rumors that Tokyo Disneyland might close temporarily. In the US, Donald Trump told everyone not to worry, which of course made fears worse. Shares dropped sharply in the last week of February. This presented an opportunity for some market participants (I noted the put option in the previous insight, and only a few people contacted me to discuss).The share price fall led to possibilities, and with the results out now, leads to potential issues, discussed below.And it turns out that Tokyo Disneyland announced a temporary closure, from 29 February to 16 March, on the 28th of February.

Oriental Land - Buyback Interrupted, and an Overhang?

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Forensic Accounting

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use 25+ accounting parameters in our framework to come up with an accounting risk score. Our tool is based in Excel and is linked dynamically to Capital IQ for fetching latest data.
Insight Flow
<ol>
<li>Forensic Analysis Framework</li>
<li>Excel Model
<ol>
<li>How to Download and Use the Tool</li>
<li>Steps to Run the Model</li>
</ol>
</li>
<li>Target Universe</li>
<li>Companies with Highest Accounting Risk </li>
<li>Summary Statistics from our Analysis</li>
<li>Key Model Limitations and Risks</li>
<li>Appendix
<ol>
<li>List of Companies in our Target Universe with Accounting Risk Score &gt;= 8</li>
<li>Glossary</li>
<li>Snapshot of Capital IQ Screener Used for Filtering Universe</li>
<li>Switch Formula Calculation Option in Excel</li>
<li>Refresh Worksheet Option in Capital IQ Plugin</li>
</ol>
</li>
</ol>
<div class="content-highlight">
What's Original?
Over time with experience and taking cues from past financial shenanigans, we have developed a proprietary quantitative framework for identifying accounting irregularities. This framework comprises of 25+ accounting parameters and takes into account 10 years of historical data to assess the quality of accounting.
</div>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use 25+ accounting parameters in our framework to come up with an accounting risk score. Our tool is based in Excel and is linked dynamically to Capital IQ for fetching latest data.
Insight Flow

Forensic Analysis Framework
Excel Model

How to Download and Use the Tool
Steps to Run the Model


Target Universe
Companies with Highest Accounting Risk 
Summary Statistics from our Analysis
Key Model Limitations and Risks
Appendix

List of Companies in our Target Universe with Accounting Risk Score &gt;= 8
Glossary
Snapshot of Capital IQ Screener Used for Filtering Universe
Switch Formula Calculation Option in Excel
Refresh Worksheet Option in Capital IQ Plugin




What's Original?
Over time with experience and taking cues from past financial shenanigans, we have developed a proprietary quantitative framework for identifying accounting irregularities. This framework comprises of 25+ accounting parameters and takes into account 10 years of historical data to assess the quality of accounting.


A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

Japan

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. provides overall real estate services such as leasing, subdivision, construction, sales, and maintenance of office buildings and residential houses.  The Company also manufactures building materials, operates commercial facilities including hotels and golf places, and provides financial services such as securitization of real estate properties.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

CASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of...

Campbell Gunn

Last Week in Event SPACE: Bank of East Asia, Maeda Road, Wheelock, Bk Permata, Oriental Land, Sawada

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Bank Of East Asia (23 HK) and Elliott enter into an uneasy truce amidst a strategic review. Maeda Road...

David Blennerhassett

Oriental Land - Buyback Interrupted, and an Overhang?

As discussed in Oriental Land Buyback Tender Offer, on 30 January this year when they announced Q3 results, Oriental Land (4661 JP) also launched a...

Travis Lundy

A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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