IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In its final results on 30 January, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.</li>
<li>The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.


Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The trade of being short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a>'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> intends to launch a Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!</li>
</ul>


The trade of being short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.

Giordano (709 HK)'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) intends to launch a Tender Offer on Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV is around a one-year high; and its implied stub (net of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> has just rolled over from a multi-year high. </li>
<li>45%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> recently reported its highest annual profit in more than a decade.</li>
<li>Reportedly (Bloomberg) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a> is mulling a stake increase in the Hong Kong carrier. This is inevitable. It's just a question of timing. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s discount to NAV is around a one-year high; and its implied stub (net of Swire Properties (1972 HK) has just rolled over from a multi-year high. 
45%-Held Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) recently reported its highest annual profit in more than a decade.
Reportedly (Bloomberg) Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH) is mulling a stake increase in the Hong Kong carrier. This is inevitable. It's just a question of timing. 


<ul>
<li>Apparently Elliott is requesting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.</li>
<li>The<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a> deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. </li>
</ul>


Apparently Elliott is requesting Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.
TheLawson (2651 JP) deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>The BIG Risk is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> sells its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> to someone in a below-market tender offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. </li>
</ul>


The BIG Risk is that Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) sells its stake in Fujitsu General (6755 JP) to someone in a below-market tender offer.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. 

Li Ning (2331 HK)'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

Hong Kong

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

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Swire Properties (1972 HK)

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