Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>GDP / China’s GDP growth slows to 5.2% as domestic demand, property continue to weigh</li><li>Railway /: Global interest in China’s high-speed rail tech picks up speed</li><li>Consumption /In Depth: The consumption conundrum dividing China’s economists</li></ul>

GDP / China’s GDP growth slows to 5.2% as domestic demand, property continue to weighRailway /: Global interest in China’s high-speed rail tech picks up speedConsumption /In Depth: The consumption conundrum dividing China’s economists

CX Daily: China’s GDP Growth Slows to 5.2% as Domestic Demand, Property Continue to Weigh 

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC's Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below</li>
<li>Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment... also at 100% for SBU Segment</li>
<li>Takeaways -- Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions... Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC's Recent Activity Momentum</li>
</ul>


We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC's Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below
Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment... also at 100% for SBU Segment
Takeaways -- Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions... Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC's Recent Activity Momentum


TechChain Insights: Kinik - The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.</li>
<li>The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> </li>
<li>In Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener"><strong>BYD (1211 HK)</strong></a><strong> is very oversold</strong>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is also oversold. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> start to be overbought.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.
The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) 
In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li>Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.</li>
<li>In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.</li>
</ul>


Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

<ul>
<li>Even if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.</li>
<li>In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.</li>
<li>In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.</li>
</ul>


Even if Intel Corp (INTC US) ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.
In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.
In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.


Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

CX Daily: China’s GDP Growth Slows to 5.2% as Domestic Demand, Property Continue to Weigh

GDP / China’s GDP growth slows to 5.2% as domestic demand, property continue to weigh Railway /: Global interest in China’s high-speed rail tech...

Caixin Global

TechChain Insights: Kinik - The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

Insight from Kinik suggests positive momentum for TSMC's expansion into nodes 2nm and below, with Kinik running at max capacity for key business...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Patrick Liao

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CX Daily: China’s GDP Growth Slows to 5.2% as Domestic Demand, Property Continue to Weigh

GDP / China’s GDP growth slows to 5.2% as domestic demand, property continue to weigh Railway /: Global interest in China’s high-speed rail tech...

Caixin Global

TechChain Insights: Kinik - The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

​Insight from Kinik suggests positive momentum for TSMC's expansion into nodes 2nm and below, with Kinik running at max capacity for key business...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

​TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

​Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Patrick Liao

Insight from Kinik suggests positive momentum for TSMC's expansion into nodes 2nm and below, with Kinik running at max capacity for key business...

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...