AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s smooth return to China hits turbulence as regulators question the H20 chip’s security.</li>
<li>AMD stays below the radar; less political baggage, and could be better positioned if Nvidia is slowed.</li>
<li>AMD also gets a lift from its Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst price upgrade.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s smooth return to China hits turbulence as regulators question the H20 chip’s security.
AMD stays below the radar; less political baggage, and could be better positioned if Nvidia is slowed.
AMD also gets a lift from its Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst price upgrade.


Nvidia’s Tightrope in China Narrows, AMD Watches From the Sidelines

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Some of the US Stocks we cover have already reported their earnings: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> .</li>
<li>Others will report next week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will report on August 28th.</li>
<li>We dive into each stock potential for upside or downside at this junction, based on tactical analysis of our quantitative trend forecast models.</li>
</ul>


Some of the US Stocks we cover have already reported their earnings: Tesla (TSLA US) and Alphabet (GOOG US) .
Others will report next week: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) ,  Meta (META US) , Apple (AAPL US), while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report on August 28th.
We dive into each stock potential for upside or downside at this junction, based on tactical analysis of our quantitative trend forecast models.


US Stocks Earnings Tactical Outlooks: GOOG, AMZN, META, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     </li>
<li>It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   </li>
<li>For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).</li>
</ul>


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).


Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.</li>
<li>China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.</li>
<li>While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.


Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia’s Tightrope in China Narrows, AMD Watches From the Sidelines

Regulators in China question Nvidia's H20 chip security, while AMD gains momentum with the Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst upgrade.

Mint Finance

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

US Stocks Earnings Tactical Outlooks: GOOG, AMZN, META, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA

An analysis of the current potential for upside or downside for AMZN, META, AAPL, TESLA, GOOG and NVDA based on our tactical quantitative WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia’s Tightrope in China Narrows, AMD Watches From the Sidelines

​Regulators in China question Nvidia's H20 chip security, while AMD gains momentum with the Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst upgrade.

Mint Finance

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

US Stocks Earnings Tactical Outlooks: GOOG, AMZN, META, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA

An analysis of the current potential for upside or downside for AMZN, META, AAPL, TESLA, GOOG and NVDA based on our tactical quantitative WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

​US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

​Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Regulators in China question Nvidia's H20 chip security, while AMD gains momentum with the Threadripper 9000 launch and a bullish analyst upgrade.

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.