Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  stock keeps climbing towards an hypothetical 5 trillion $ market cap, as the artificial intelligence (AI) trade accelerates.</li>
<li>Unconfirmed rumors say <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> has acquired CentML, a machine learning startup that provides an optimization platform to enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AI model training and deployment.</li>
<li>After 5 weeks up in a row and a furious, vertical rally, <strong>the stock begins to appear OVERBOUGHT, according to our model.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  stock keeps climbing towards an hypothetical 5 trillion $ market cap, as the artificial intelligence (AI) trade accelerates.
Unconfirmed rumors say NVIDIA has acquired CentML, a machine learning startup that provides an optimization platform to enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AI model training and deployment.
After 5 weeks up in a row and a furious, vertical rally, the stock begins to appear OVERBOUGHT, according to our model.



NVIDIA (NVDA US) At All-Time High Acquires CentML: Weekly Tactical Outlook (June 30 – July 4)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits</li>
<li>Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. </li>
<li>Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.</li><li>The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.</li><li>The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.</li></ul>

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. </li>
<li>He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East</li>
<li>NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.</li>
</ul>


Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. 
He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.


NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

NVIDIA (NVDA US) At All-Time High Acquires CentML: Weekly Tactical Outlook (June 30 – July 4)

NVIDIA hit all-time highs on Friday, approaching a $5 trillion market cap amid CentML acquisition rumors—but the stock is now overbought. Brace for...

Nico Rosti

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption,...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA (NVDA US) At All-Time High Acquires CentML: Weekly Tactical Outlook (June 30 – July 4)

NVIDIA hit all-time highs on Friday, approaching a $5 trillion market cap amid CentML acquisition rumors—but the stock is now overbought. Brace for...

Nico Rosti

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

​Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption,...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...