Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.</li><li>Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.</li><li>The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.</li></ul></div>

The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

<ul><li>The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and, in the future, will spotlight individual companies and their AI initiatives.</li><li>AI Flood Watch. In this recurring feature, we highlight the latest news items related to AI, classify them as “Rising” (suggesting the AI “flood” is continuing apace) or “Falling” (indicating hiccups on the road to broader AI adoption).</li><li>AI adoption is accelerating into real workflows—but markets are demanding receipts, not just roadmaps.</li></ul>

The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and, in the future, will spotlight individual companies and their AI initiatives.AI Flood Watch. In this recurring feature, we highlight the latest news items related to AI, classify them as “Rising” (suggesting the AI “flood” is continuing apace) or “Falling” (indicating hiccups on the road to broader AI adoption).AI adoption is accelerating into real workflows—but markets are demanding receipts, not just roadmaps.

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI - 5 February 2026

<div><ul><li>The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and, in the future, will spotlight individual companies and their AI initiatives.</li><li>AI Flood Watch. December’s AI landscape was defined by surging infrastructure bets colliding with mounting financial scrutiny.</li><li>At CES 2026, Nvidia unveiled its Vera Rubin platform, promising 5x training gains and dramatically cheaper token generation, while AMD showcased competitive alternatives as the compute arms race shows no signs of cooling. </li></ul></div>

The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and, in the future, will spotlight individual companies and their AI initiatives.AI Flood Watch. December’s AI landscape was defined by surging infrastructure bets colliding with mounting financial scrutiny.At CES 2026, Nvidia unveiled its Vera Rubin platform, promising 5x training gains and dramatically cheaper token generation, while AMD showcased competitive alternatives as the compute arms race shows no signs of cooling. 

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI - 9 January 2026

<ul><li>This month’s AI landscape reveals a market at an inflection point, with record infrastructure commitments colliding with growing bubble anxiety. </li><li>Meta’s staggering $600-billion US buildout plan and Anthropic’s $50-billion data center announcements underscore that the compute arms race is accelerating, not cooling.</li><li>Yet caution signals are flashing, as CoreWeave trimmed its full-year guidance despite strong 3Q results, while Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius Group all saw pressure on their stocks. </li></ul>

This month’s AI landscape reveals a market at an inflection point, with record infrastructure commitments colliding with growing bubble anxiety. Meta’s staggering $600-billion US buildout plan and Anthropic’s $50-billion data center announcements underscore that the compute arms race is accelerating, not cooling.Yet caution signals are flashing, as CoreWeave trimmed its full-year guidance despite strong 3Q results, while Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius Group all saw pressure on their stocks. 

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI

Managing Director, Golden Section Capital

Garreth Elston

Managing Director

Golden Section Equity Research

Golden Section Capital

Golden Section Capital is a private international investment, specialist independent equity research, and corporate finance consulting services provider focussing on real estate and infrastructure. 

Paid for corporate research on Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Plus independent pieces on various real estate companies and themes.

<ul>
<li>The South African listed property sector extended its recovery through October, supported by stabilising inflation, a softer global rate backdrop, and renewed capital inflows into income-yielding assets.</li>
<li>The J803 All Property Index delivered an 8.13% total return for the month, bringing year-to-date gains to 21.11%</li>
<li>Sector breadth remains the strongest in over two years, with 26 of 40 counters posting positive returns.</li>
</ul>


The South African listed property sector extended its recovery through October, supported by stabilising inflation, a softer global rate backdrop, and renewed capital inflows into income-yielding assets.
The J803 All Property Index delivered an 8.13% total return for the month, bringing year-to-date gains to 21.11%
Sector breadth remains the strongest in over two years, with 26 of 40 counters posting positive returns.


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.

Water Tower Research

SA Listed Property Review - October 2025

The South African listed property sector rebounded in October with strong returns and increased investor interest in income-yielding assets.

Golden Section Capital

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AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.

Water Tower Research

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI - 5 February 2026

The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and, in the future, will spotlight individual companies and their AI initiatives.

Water Tower Research

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI - 9 January 2026

The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and, in the future, will spotlight individual companies and their AI initiatives.

Water Tower Research

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI

This month’s AI landscape reveals a market at an inflection point, with record infrastructure commitments colliding with growing bubble anxiety.

Water Tower Research

SA Listed Property Review - October 2025

​The South African listed property sector rebounded in October with strong returns and increased investor interest in income-yielding assets.

Golden Section Capital

The South African listed property sector rebounded in October with strong returns and increased investor interest in income-yielding assets.