Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JIP TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> is here. Finally. It's still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> selling Three Exchange Square sounds purely speculative. At best. But it would have a bigly impact on Hong Kong Office sentiment if true. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a> reported 1H results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it's worth looking at.</li>
</ul>


The JIP TOB for Toshiba (6502 JP) is here. Finally. It's still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) selling Three Exchange Square sounds purely speculative. At best. But it would have a bigly impact on Hong Kong Office sentiment if true. 

Inpex (1605 JP) reported 1H results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it's worth looking at.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NTT reports a Q1 which looks like KDDI where the business looks like KDDI and a bit better than that where it doesn't. Good. Not great. </li>
<li>But NTT announced a ¥200bn buyback. Again good. Not great. </li>
<li>And on Sunday, LDP politician Amari spoke on a Sunday news show about the possible govt selldown of NTT shares. 20yrs is a long time. So no overhang.</li>
</ul>


NTT reports a Q1 which looks like KDDI where the business looks like KDDI and a bit better than that where it doesn't. Good. Not great. 
But NTT announced a ¥200bn buyback. Again good. Not great. 
And on Sunday, LDP politician Amari spoke on a Sunday news show about the possible govt selldown of NTT shares. 20yrs is a long time. So no overhang.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX500 fell on Friday, and closed -2.3%WoW;  July jobs report showed cooling in the labor market;  Apple -4.8% weighed on market sentiment; Reports that Buffet buying short dated UST.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8; Strong JP earning season so far- NP +20%YoY; Investors favor Japan&gt;  China;  Oasis's Fischer says still more to be done with Governance.</li>
<li>NUGGET. Honda is ahead of their motorcycle electrification strategy vs Japanese competitors.  With the #1 global share and 2.7 trillion yen in sales, they CANNOT afford to be left behind.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX500 fell on Friday, and closed -2.3%WoW;  July jobs report showed cooling in the labor market;  Apple -4.8% weighed on market sentiment; Reports that Buffet buying short dated UST.
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8; Strong JP earning season so far- NP +20%YoY; Investors favor Japan&gt;  China;  Oasis's Fischer says still more to be done with Governance.
NUGGET. Honda is ahead of their motorcycle electrification strategy vs Japanese competitors.  With the #1 global share and 2.7 trillion yen in sales, they CANNOT afford to be left behind.


Ohayo Japan| SPX -2.3%WoW; Buffett Buying UST; NUGGET:Motorcycle Electrification - Honda Roars Ahead

<ul>
<li>Today, with Q1 earnings, which I found less than great, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> announced a Tender Offer Buyback to repurchase up to 64,102,500 shares for up to ¥250.03175bn.</li>
<li>The Tender Offer - at ¥3900/share vs Last at ¥4,271/share (designed for cross-holding unwinds) - goes from 31-July through 28-August. It fills the 83.3% of the buyback programme announced 11-May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has announced it would sell ¥250bn of shares into this Tender Offer. This is less interesting than it looks. The whole thing is.</li>
</ul>


Today, with Q1 earnings, which I found less than great, KDDI Corp (9433 JP) announced a Tender Offer Buyback to repurchase up to 64,102,500 shares for up to ¥250.03175bn.
The Tender Offer - at ¥3900/share vs Last at ¥4,271/share (designed for cross-holding unwinds) - goes from 31-July through 28-August. It fills the 83.3% of the buyback programme announced 11-May.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has announced it would sell ¥250bn of shares into this Tender Offer. This is less interesting than it looks. The whole thing is.


KDDI (9433) - Own Share Tender Offer, Toyota To Sell (Gasp!)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.</li>
<li>There are some doubts over the fate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a>'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. </li>
<li>Don't punt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.</li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.
There are some doubts over the fate of Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. 
Don't punt Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Amari Ni Mo... NTT (9432)

NTT's Q1 is OK, but not fantastic. "In line". But they announced a buyback, and LDP pol Amari's comments Sunday tell you there are more buybacks...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan| SPX -2.3%WoW; Buffett Buying UST; NUGGET:Motorcycle Electrification - Honda Roars Ahead

JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8; Strong JP earning season so far- NP +20%YoY; Global Investors favor Japan over China; Oasis's...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Amari Ni Mo... NTT (9432)

NTT's Q1 is OK, but not fantastic. "In line". But they announced a buyback, and LDP pol Amari's comments Sunday tell you there are more buybacks...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan| SPX -2.3%WoW; Buffett Buying UST; NUGGET:Motorcycle Electrification - Honda Roars Ahead

JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8; Strong JP earning season so far- NP +20%YoY; Global Investors favor Japan over China; Oasis's...

Mark Chadwick

KDDI (9433) - Own Share Tender Offer, Toyota To Sell (Gasp!)

KDDI has announced a tender offer to fulfil 83% of their original buyback program. Toyota will sell. This looks more important, governance-wise,...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett