Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 30th April 2025, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a>  </strong><a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0430/2025043003439.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.</li>
<li>The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation's largest gold mine.</li>
<li>A Circular is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0610/2025061000537.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a> concerning the spin-off, which is <em>not</em> subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation's largest gold mine.
A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.</li>
<li>Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.</li>
<li>Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.</li>
</ul>


A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.


Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
</ul>


5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.7% as of Jun 20th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by energy, health care, utilities and offset by consumer staples, real estate, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services, Shanghai Petrochemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.7% as of Jun 20th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.5ppt week-on-week, led by energy, health care, utilities and offset by consumer staples, real estate, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services, Shanghai Petrochemical.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 20th): Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

A spin-off makes sense as Zijin capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However, I see Zijin trading at a single-digit discount to NAV....

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 20th): Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

A spin-off makes sense as Zijin capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However, I see Zijin trading at a single-digit discount to NAV....

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

​Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 20th): Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield Services

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Petrochina, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Oilfield...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...