IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain/LY revised their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer to JPY3,597 (JPY3,720 for KDDI share buyback), 2.2% premium to the previous JPY3,520 offer but a 2.3% discount to EQT/DG’s JPY3,680 offer.</li>
<li>Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a>’s latest offer underwhelms and could backfire if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> and possibly Oasis decide to end this long-running saga by accepting the marginally lower EQT/DG<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener"></a> offer.</li>
<li>While there remain arguments for continued escalation, the “winning” offer is unlikely to exceed the last close (JPY3,820). It's time to head for the exit. </li>
</ul>


Bain/LY revised their Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer to JPY3,597 (JPY3,720 for KDDI share buyback), 2.2% premium to the previous JPY3,520 offer but a 2.3% discount to EQT/DG’s JPY3,680 offer.
Bain/LY (4689 JP)’s latest offer underwhelms and could backfire if KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and possibly Oasis decide to end this long-running saga by accepting the marginally lower EQT/DG offer.
While there remain arguments for continued escalation, the “winning” offer is unlikely to exceed the last close (JPY3,820). It's time to head for the exit. 


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY’s Latest Offer Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. </li>
<li>Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.</li>
<li>Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.</li>
</ul>


A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. 
Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.
Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lawson is the third largest convenience store chain nowadays, but a recent poll revealed it to be the second most popular – and it is gaining on leader Seven Eleven. </li>
<li>The company has released a slew of new developments in the past couple of months, some of which point to the future of retailing here.</li>
<li>They also show the potential for Seven Eleven Japan but only if it follows the same path.</li>
</ul>


Lawson is the third largest convenience store chain nowadays, but a recent poll revealed it to be the second most popular – and it is gaining on leader Seven Eleven. 
The company has released a slew of new developments in the past couple of months, some of which point to the future of retailing here.
They also show the potential for Seven Eleven Japan but only if it follows the same path.


Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

<ul>
<li>Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.</li>
<li>Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.</li>
<li>The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.</li>
</ul>


Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.
Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.
The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.


Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.</li>
<li>Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.</li>
<li>Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?</li>
</ul>


Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.
Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.
Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?


Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY’s Latest Offer Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Bain/LY's latest offer underwhelms. While there remain arguments for continued escalation, the “winning” offer is unlikely to exceed the last close...

Arun George

Seven & I: Where Is the Growth?

Seven & I is showing worrying signs of low morale in recent quarters. It has lost out in a bid for a major base in Poland to ACT and back home,...

Michael Causton

Lawson: New Ideas for Growth

Lawson is rapidly gaining popularity and innovating in the convenience store industry, posing a threat to current leader Seven Eleven.

Michael Causton

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY’s Latest Offer Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Bain/LY's latest offer underwhelms. While there remain arguments for continued escalation, the “winning” offer is unlikely to exceed the last close...

Arun George

Seven & I: Where Is the Growth?

Seven & I is showing worrying signs of low morale in recent quarters. It has lost out in a bid for a major base in Poland to ACT and back home,...

Michael Causton

Lawson: New Ideas for Growth

​Lawson is rapidly gaining popularity and innovating in the convenience store industry, posing a threat to current leader Seven Eleven.

Michael Causton

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

​Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Lawson is rapidly gaining popularity and innovating in the convenience store industry, posing a threat to current leader Seven Eleven.

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.