AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Revenue Impact: Google’s ad segment may see a 5-10% drop due to stricter user data protections, reducing personalized advertising reach. </li>
<li>App Store Revenue Loss: Mandated alternative payment systems threaten Google Play and Apple’s app store revenue streams, cutting commissions. </li>
<li>Operational Costs: Non-compliance fines of up to 20% of annual revenue and the added costs for compliance systems intensify financial pressure.</li>
</ul>


Revenue Impact: Google’s ad segment may see a 5-10% drop due to stricter user data protections, reducing personalized advertising reach. 
App Store Revenue Loss: Mandated alternative payment systems threaten Google Play and Apple’s app store revenue streams, cutting commissions. 
Operational Costs: Non-compliance fines of up to 20% of annual revenue and the added costs for compliance systems intensify financial pressure.


Tech Giants Overhaul Platforms Amidst EU's Digital Markets Act Enforcement [Regulations Part 2]

<ul>
<li>The EU AI Act’s strict testing for high-risk AI may increase compliance costs for tech firms, forcing them to slow down releases or invest more in safety protocols. </li>
<li>California’s AI Bill anticipates future advancements, putting tech firms on notice, driving pre emptive transparency efforts, and likely raising operational costs for scaling AI systems. </li>
<li>Tech giants like Meta and OpenAI, with democrats like Pelosi oppose California's SB 1047, citing risks to open-source AI and innovation. Prominent figures like Musk and Anthropic AI support regulation.</li>
</ul>


The EU AI Act’s strict testing for high-risk AI may increase compliance costs for tech firms, forcing them to slow down releases or invest more in safety protocols. 
California’s AI Bill anticipates future advancements, putting tech firms on notice, driving pre emptive transparency efforts, and likely raising operational costs for scaling AI systems. 
Tech giants like Meta and OpenAI, with democrats like Pelosi oppose California's SB 1047, citing risks to open-source AI and innovation. Prominent figures like Musk and Anthropic AI support regulation.


Global AI Regulations: Big Tech Braces for New Compliance and Innovation Challenges [Part 1]

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.</li>
<li>The largest one-way turnover is expected in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/materials-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27541:1" rel="noopener">Materials Select Sector SPDR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>.</li>
<li>The inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> will add to the buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.
The largest one-way turnover is expected in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Materials Select Sector SPDR and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The inflows to Apple (AAPL US), Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) and Dell Technologies (DELL US) will add to the buying from the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) trackers.


Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Diverse AI Portfolio: Microsoft’s diversified AI investments, including partnerships with G42 and Mistral AI, reduce reliance on OpenAI and ensure continued innovation across multiple AI ventures.</li>
<li>
Azure’s Competitive Edge: The partnership with OpenAI strengthens Azure’s position by offering exclusive AI-driven cloud services, boosting demand from enterprises seeking advanced automation and productivity tools.</li>
<li>
Industry Leadership: As AI investment intensifies across the tech sector, Microsoft’s significant spending outpaces peers, positioning the company as a frontrunner while highlighting competitive pressures in the growing AI landscape.</li>
</ul>



Diverse AI Portfolio: Microsoft’s diversified AI investments, including partnerships with G42 and Mistral AI, reduce reliance on OpenAI and ensure continued innovation across multiple AI ventures.

Azure’s Competitive Edge: The partnership with OpenAI strengthens Azure’s position by offering exclusive AI-driven cloud services, boosting demand from enterprises seeking advanced automation and productivity tools.

Industry Leadership: As AI investment intensifies across the tech sector, Microsoft’s significant spending outpaces peers, positioning the company as a frontrunner while highlighting competitive pressures in the growing AI landscape.


Microsoft's Billion Dollar Bets on OpenAI & G42; Azure to Benefit from Industry Growth

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Tech Giants Overhaul Platforms Amidst EU's Digital Markets Act Enforcement [Regulations Part 2]

The EU's Digital Markets Act targets monopolistic behaviors, prompting major changes from Google, Meta, and Apple, as they navigate compliance,...

Mint Finance

Global AI Regulations: Big Tech Braces for New Compliance and Innovation Challenges [Part 1]

AI regulations tighten worldwide, with the EU and California leading the charge. Tech giants face mounting compliance costs, operational changes,...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Microsoft's Billion Dollar Bets on OpenAI & G42; Azure to Benefit from Industry Growth

Microsoft's AI investments include $10B in OpenAI, $1.5B in G42, and $2.1B in Mistral AI. Azure's exclusivity with OpenAI ensures revenue. Leading...

Mint Finance

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