Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.</li>
<li>After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.</li>
<li>We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity <strong><em>after</em></strong> TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.</li>
</ul>


Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.
After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.
We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.


Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai's Zhengzhou problems appear to be easing; Nevertheless, the company is expanding in India and Vietnam regardless.</li>
<li>We believe the company's EV platform business and EV milestones will drive the shares in 2023E.</li>
<li>We have developed a financial model for Hon Hai and are establishing a 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 55% above current levels. This is higher than the Street.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai's Zhengzhou problems appear to be easing; Nevertheless, the company is expanding in India and Vietnam regardless.
We believe the company's EV platform business and EV milestones will drive the shares in 2023E.
We have developed a financial model for Hon Hai and are establishing a 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 55% above current levels. This is higher than the Street.


Hon Hai: EV Growth Will Come Into Focus in 2023E, Can Hit NT$155 Per Share

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space.</li>
<li>Hon Hai could shift 30% of its production for Apple outside of China according to an industry report.</li>
<li>Intel delays German expansion citing cost inflation, seeking additional government subsidies.</li>
</ul>


Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space.
Hon Hai could shift 30% of its production for Apple outside of China according to an industry report.
Intel delays German expansion citing cost inflation, seeking additional government subsidies.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Elon Musk sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he &amp; Twitter need serious cash NOW. </li>
<li>His banks know why—they hold Elon's margin loans and they get Twitter's financial info every month.</li>
<li>And the banks want Elon to buy back from them Twitter's riskiest LBO debt, which they can't sell because of how fast he is destroying Twitter's business and prospects.</li>
</ul>


Elon Musk sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he &amp; Twitter need serious cash NOW. 
His banks know why—they hold Elon's margin loans and they get Twitter's financial info every month.
And the banks want Elon to buy back from them Twitter's riskiest LBO debt, which they can't sell because of how fast he is destroying Twitter's business and prospects.


Elon Sold More Falling Tesla Stock. Margin Calls? Twitter Failing? Bank Demands? Likely All Three.

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Apple (AAPL US)

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space. Also -- U.S. chip restrictions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Elon Sold More Falling Tesla Stock. Margin Calls? Twitter Failing? Bank Demands? Likely All Three.

Elon sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he & Twitter need serious cash NOW. His banks know why & they want Elon to buy back from...

Vicki Bryan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hon Hai: EV Growth Will Come Into Focus in 2023E, Can Hit NT$155 Per Share

We have developed a financial model for Hon Hai and are establishing a 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 55% above current levels. This is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space. Also -- U.S. chip restrictions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Elon Sold More Falling Tesla Stock. Margin Calls? Twitter Failing? Bank Demands? Likely All Three.

Elon sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he & Twitter need serious cash NOW. His banks know why & they want Elon to buy back from...

Vicki Bryan