Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press Holdings, Afterpay, Link Admin, Razer, AusNet, 51job

The sound bite in the last week was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> surpassing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> as the world's most valuable company. 
Yet 13 years ago, almost to the day, the world's largest company was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a>. For one day at least. 
Volkswagen, like a number of large listed companies in Germany, has two classes of shares - ordinary shares, which are carry voting rights, and preference shares, which don't, but are income paying. Below is the ord premium over prefs for the last 18 years.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/499/original/image_23964649881635928119230.png?1635928120" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239499"></figure>
That extraordinary spike occurred on the 28 October 2008. Just as global markets were imploding. 
Around this time <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding Se (PAH3 GR)</a> held ~35% in VW - the ords - having first taken a 20% stake in 2005, then to 30% in early 2007, triggering a mandatory offer. In March 2008, Porsche's supervisory board gave the green light to hold 50%. 
The ord premium oscillated between ~27%-55% in the early noughts until around 2006 when Porsche began building its stake.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/503/original/image_70873068291635928736842.png?1635928739" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239503"></figure>
This escalating premium can also be illustrated by the bifurcation in the prices of the two share classes.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/520/original/image_637451579121635932198816.png?1635932199" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239520"></figure>
The arbitrage  - short the ords, long the prefs - appeared a "riskless trade". And still, the ord premium expanded, closing at a 400+% on the 16 October, before showing some semblance of normalcy and retracing to 247% on the 21 October.
Porsche had made no public announcement about any further share acquisition since the 17 September when it held <a href="https://www.porsche-se.com/en/news/press-releases/details/news/detail/News/porsche-increases-its-vw-stake-to-3514-per-cent-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">35.14%</a>.  On Sunday the 26 October, it <a href="https://www.porsche-se.com/en/news/press-releases/details/news/detail/News/porsche-heads-for-domination-agreement-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>:
<blockquote>
Due to the dramatic distortions on the financial markets Porsche Automobil Holding SE, Stuttgart, has decided over the weekend to disclose its holdings in shares and hedging positions related to the takeover of Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg. At the end of last week Porsche SE held 42.6 per cent of the Volkswagen ordinary shares and in addition 31.5 per cent in so called cash settled options relating to Volkswagen ordinary shares to hedge against price risks, representing a total of 74.1 per cent.
</blockquote>
Then that sinking feeling: Porsche holds 74.1%, Lower Saxony 20%, leaving ~6% of ordinary shares in the market to buy. Yet an estimated 12% of the ord shares were short sold. It wasn't possible for all short-sellers to buy back shares and close their positions.
VW touched $999/share on the 28 October,  before finally coming back (ostensibly from the moon) to earth, belatedly helped by Porsche providing 5% to short-sellers (despite <a href="https://www.porsche-se.com/en/news/press-releases/details/news/detail/News/short-sellers-responsible-for-extreme-price-movements-in-volkswagen-ordinary-shares-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blaming</a> the shorts for the extreme price movements).
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/516/original/image_468353378111635930921766.png?1635930922" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239516"></figure>
Porsche subsequently cleared 50% in VW's ordinary shares, but not only lacked the funding to take its stake all the way to 75% - via the options - it had also borrowed heavily to build that 50% stake in VW, to the point the iconic car brand had to stave off possible bankruptcy.
Short-sellers lost around US$20bn which has largely fallen on deaf ears in the <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/investors-lose-suit-over-porsches-short-squeeze/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">courts</a>. Porsche's CEO Wendelin Wiedeking was booted out. And Ferdinand Piëch, Ferdinand Porsche's grandson, former CEO, then chairman of VW, was sitting pretty as he and family held 50% of the voting rights in Porsche SE. 
The ords moved into negative territory following the carnage, then roughly hugged parity for a few years. The ord premium is on the run again. Time to get short?
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/515/original/image_948776569101635930730635.png?1635930743" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239515"></figure>

The sound bite in the last week was Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) surpassing Apple Inc (AAPL US) as the world's most valuable company. 
Yet 13 years ago, almost to the day, the world's largest company was Volkswagen (VOW GR). For one day at least. 
Volkswagen, like a number of large listed companies in Germany, has two classes of shares - ordinary shares, which are carry voting rights, and preference shares, which don't, but are income paying. Below is the ord premium over prefs for the last 18 years.

That extraordinary spike occurred on the 28 October 2008. Just as global markets were imploding. 
Around this time Porsche Automobil Holding Se (PAH3 GR) held ~35% in VW - the ords - having first taken a 20% stake in 2005, then to 30% in early 2007, triggering a mandatory offer. In March 2008, Porsche's supervisory board gave the green light to hold 50%. 
The ord premium oscillated between ~27%-55% in the early noughts until around 2006 when Porsche began building its stake.

This escalating premium can also be illustrated by the bifurcation in the prices of the two share classes.

The arbitrage  - short the ords, long the prefs - appeared a "riskless trade". And still, the ord premium expanded, closing at a 400+% on the 16 October, before showing some semblance of normalcy and retracing to 247% on the 21 October.
Porsche had made no public announcement about any further share acquisition since the 17 September when it held 35.14%.  On Sunday the 26 October, it announced:

Due to the dramatic distortions on the financial markets Porsche Automobil Holding SE, Stuttgart, has decided over the weekend to disclose its holdings in shares and hedging positions related to the takeover of Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg. At the end of last week Porsche SE held 42.6 per cent of the Volkswagen ordinary shares and in addition 31.5 per cent in so called cash settled options relating to Volkswagen ordinary shares to hedge against price risks, representing a total of 74.1 per cent.

Then that sinking feeling: Porsche holds 74.1%, Lower Saxony 20%, leaving ~6% of ordinary shares in the market to buy. Yet an estimated 12% of the ord shares were short sold. It wasn't possible for all short-sellers to buy back shares and close their positions.
VW touched $999/share on the 28 October,  before finally coming back (ostensibly from the moon) to earth, belatedly helped by Porsche providing 5% to short-sellers (despite blaming the shorts for the extreme price movements).

Porsche subsequently cleared 50% in VW's ordinary shares, but not only lacked the funding to take its stake all the way to 75% - via the options - it had also borrowed heavily to build that 50% stake in VW, to the point the iconic car brand had to stave off possible bankruptcy.
Short-sellers lost around US$20bn which has largely fallen on deaf ears in the courts. Porsche's CEO Wendelin Wiedeking was booted out. And Ferdinand Piëch, Ferdinand Porsche's grandson, former CEO, then chairman of VW, was sitting pretty as he and family held 50% of the voting rights in Porsche SE. 
The ords moved into negative territory following the carnage, then roughly hugged parity for a few years. The ord premium is on the run again. Time to get short?


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

An old saying in stock investing is wait three days after a blowup to buy. OK…well Snap blew up 10 days ago…and Facebook last week. So, which to buy? Well, go buy Google first. It’s a better company than either Snap or Facebook, isn’t impacted by Apple’s changes, and has the more compelling growth adjusted valuation. But Snap or Facebook? We bought both.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

An old saying in stock investing is wait three days after a blowup to buy. OK…well Snap blew up 10 days ago…and Facebook last week. So, which to buy? Well, go buy Google first. It’s a better company than either Snap or Facebook, isn’t impacted by Apple’s changes, and has the more compelling growth adjusted valuation. But Snap or Facebook? We bought both.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headline Development</h2>Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go to Uber (UBER) drivers.  On top of this, Hertz will also invest significantly in EV charging infrastructure across its global operations.

Headline DevelopmentHertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go to Uber (UBER) drivers.  On top of this, Hertz will also invest significantly in EV charging infrastructure across its global operations.

Deep Dive - Facebook Metaverse This week I want to do a deep dive into the Metaverse after Facebook (FB) announced its plan to hire 10,000 people for their Metaverse project. It’s a theme that will run through many future editions of WIRE and is something I’ve also dived into a little here and here with Future Sandwich’s Tommy McCubbin.

Deep Dive - Facebook Metaverse This week I want to do a deep dive into the Metaverse after Facebook (FB) announced its plan to hire 10,000 people for their Metaverse project. It’s a theme that will run through many future editions of WIRE and is something I’ve also dived into a little here and here with Future Sandwich’s Tommy McCubbin.

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press Holdings, Afterpay, Link Admin, Razer, AusNet, 51job

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Volkswagen's Ords Are Acting Up - Again

Why the bifurcation? I see no apparent reason. And without the benefit of understanding why this recent move has occurred, I'd be reluctant to set...

David Blennerhassett

Do You Buy Snap or Facebook or Both?

Snapchat blew up on earnings last week, Facebook followed. We think both merit buying; Snapchat will revert to 50%+ growth, while Facebook is too...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #55

Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go...

Granite Bay Capital

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #54

Deep Dive - Facebook Metaverse This week I want to do a deep dive into the Metaverse after Facebook (FB) announced its plan to hire 10,000 people...

Granite Bay Capital

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