Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Apple is quietly doing something big in the desert.</li><li>It is using its wallet to pull more of its chip supply chain onto U.S. soil.</li><li>The Feb.</li></ul>

Apple is quietly doing something big in the desert.It is using its wallet to pull more of its chip supply chain onto U.S. soil.The Feb.

Apple Just Backed U.S. Chip Capacity — But The Tech Lead Still Lives In Taiwan

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Software/ hardware trade in H1 was effectively a growth/value trade, but not in the traditional sense of active investor style bias.</li><li>Hundreds of billions of dollars tracking style or factor benchmarks like ‘Value’ were actually long Micron, Sandisk and Google and then flipped them out at end June, replacing them with what were previously called growth stocks like Microsoft and Apple.</li><li>Meanwhile, growth benchmarks that were long Microsoft and Apple, now have Micron and Google.</li></ul>

The Software/ hardware trade in H1 was effectively a growth/value trade, but not in the traditional sense of active investor style bias.Hundreds of billions of dollars tracking style or factor benchmarks like ‘Value’ were actually long Micron, Sandisk and Google and then flipped them out at end June, replacing them with what were previously called growth stocks like Microsoft and Apple.Meanwhile, growth benchmarks that were long Microsoft and Apple, now have Micron and Google.

Were style lags part of the July washout?

<ul><li>Apple acquired Israeli startup Q.AI for close to $2B, locking down patents around “facial skin micro movements” that enable silent interaction with devices.</li><li>The move extends Apple’s AI ambitions deeper into hardware just as Vision Pro enters the market and the company posts the strongest quarter in its history.</li><li>The market’s immediate read is that Apple is playing catch-up to Meta and Google in AI wearables.</li></ul>

Apple acquired Israeli startup Q.AI for close to $2B, locking down patents around “facial skin micro movements” that enable silent interaction with devices.The move extends Apple’s AI ambitions deeper into hardware just as Vision Pro enters the market and the company posts the strongest quarter in its history.The market’s immediate read is that Apple is playing catch-up to Meta and Google in AI wearables.

Apple Just Bought Q.AI — But The REAL Shift Is In Wearable UX!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Dec-25 (1Q26) results are 7% above Consensus, Mar-26 guidance 7% above Consensus. Revenue growth accelerated from ~6% in FY25 to ~15% in 1H26. For a company of that size: impressive.</li>
<li>IPhone revenue up 23%, China 38% YoY. “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” can continue into Mar-Jun-26. Part of Mar-26 strengths comes from supply constraints in Dec-25 (i.e. TSMC 3nm).</li>
<li>Consensus should be ~5-7% too low on FY26. This doesn’t mean that FY27-28 will also increase: Apple is a product-cycle company. Valuations high, as usual: 30x forward EPS.</li>
</ul>


Dec-25 (1Q26) results are 7% above Consensus, Mar-26 guidance 7% above Consensus. Revenue growth accelerated from ~6% in FY25 to ~15% in 1H26. For a company of that size: impressive.
IPhone revenue up 23%, China 38% YoY. “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” can continue into Mar-Jun-26. Part of Mar-26 strengths comes from supply constraints in Dec-25 (i.e. TSMC 3nm).
Consensus should be ~5-7% too low on FY26. This doesn’t mean that FY27-28 will also increase: Apple is a product-cycle company. Valuations high, as usual: 30x forward EPS.


Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> attracted our attention because it has been selling off for 6 weeks (if this week's close is confirmed down, i.e. below 271.01).</li>
<li>Apple sell-off started in early December, and has been pretty much monodirectional with no rallies.</li>
<li>
<strong>Our model thinks the stock is quite oversold and may soon rally back. </strong>Most likely the rally will take place from the end of this week, or next week.</li>
</ul>



Apple (AAPL US) attracted our attention because it has been selling off for 6 weeks (if this week's close is confirmed down, i.e. below 271.01).
Apple sell-off started in early December, and has been pretty much monodirectional with no rallies.

Our model thinks the stock is quite oversold and may soon rally back. Most likely the rally will take place from the end of this week, or next week.


Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Apple Just Backed U.S. Chip Capacity — But The Tech Lead Still Lives In Taiwan

Apple is quietly doing something big in the desert. It is using its wallet to pull more of its chip supply chain onto U.S. soil. The Feb.

Baptista Research

Were style lags part of the July washout?

The Software/ hardware trade in H1 was effectively a growth/value trade, but not in the traditional sense of active investor style bias.

Mark Tinker

Apple Just Bought Q.AI — But The REAL Shift Is In Wearable UX!

Apple acquired Israeli startup Q.AI for close to $2B, locking down patents around “facial skin micro movements” that enable silent interaction...

Baptista Research

Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%

Apple: Impressive revenue growth, iPhone sales drive Apple's strong performance, with potential for continued strength in the coming quarters.

Nicolas Baratte

Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Apple Just Backed U.S. Chip Capacity — But The Tech Lead Still Lives In Taiwan

Apple is quietly doing something big in the desert. It is using its wallet to pull more of its chip supply chain onto U.S. soil. The Feb.

Baptista Research

Were style lags part of the July washout?

The Software/ hardware trade in H1 was effectively a growth/value trade, but not in the traditional sense of active investor style bias.

Mark Tinker

Apple Just Bought Q.AI — But The REAL Shift Is In Wearable UX!

Apple acquired Israeli startup Q.AI for close to $2B, locking down patents around “facial skin micro movements” that enable silent interaction...

Baptista Research

Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%

Apple: ​Impressive revenue growth, iPhone sales drive Apple's strong performance, with potential for continued strength in the coming quarters.

Nicolas Baratte

Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

​Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...

Nico Rosti

Apple: Impressive revenue growth, iPhone sales drive Apple's strong performance, with potential for continued strength in the coming quarters.

Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...