Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (10 Nov)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>  and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a>  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 


Meta (META US)  and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of TOPIX CORE 30 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Hitachi, Softbank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of TOPIX CORE 30 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Hitachi, Softbank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit.


TOPIX CORE 30 Index Earning Revision (Oct): Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this in-depth review, it is clear that while Japanese clothing markets had a solid year in FY2024-25, once again the top 100 retailers outperformed by a large margin.</li>
<li>This meant they surpassed 71% share of the market but, within the specialty market alone, the top 10 retailers own 34%. This is now a clear oligopoly.</li>
<li>There are no signs of the situation changing either but rather the capacity of the leaders to invest should further expand share at the top.</li>
</ul>


In this in-depth review, it is clear that while Japanese clothing markets had a solid year in FY2024-25, once again the top 100 retailers outperformed by a large margin.
This meant they surpassed 71% share of the market but, within the specialty market alone, the top 10 retailers own 34%. This is now a clear oligopoly.
There are no signs of the situation changing either but rather the capacity of the leaders to invest should further expand share at the top.


The Great Divide: Fashion Retail’s Oligopoly

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>A lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.</li>
</ul>



Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.


Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

Price Gauge
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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (10 Nov)

Statistical methodology identifies 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

TOPIX CORE 30 Index Earning Revision (Oct): Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

We analyzed TOPIX CORE 30's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit (6098 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP), Sony Financial (8729...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Great Divide: Fashion Retail’s Oligopoly

Japanese clothing market dominated by top 100 retailers in FY2024-25, with top 10 owning 34% in specialty market, solidifying oligopoly. Leaders...

Michael Causton

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Following today's rally, Advantest's weight in the Nikkei225 is ~11.2%. At that level, the stock will be capped in March and then again in...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (10 Nov)

​Statistical methodology identifies 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

TOPIX CORE 30 Index Earning Revision (Oct): Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

We analyzed TOPIX CORE 30's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit (6098 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP), Sony Financial (8729...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Great Divide: Fashion Retail’s Oligopoly

​Japanese clothing market dominated by top 100 retailers in FY2024-25, with top 10 owning 34% in specialty market, solidifying oligopoly. Leaders...

Michael Causton

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Following today's rally, Advantest's weight in the Nikkei225 is ~11.2%. At that level, the stock will be capped in March and then again in...

Brian Freitas

Statistical methodology identifies 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Japanese clothing market dominated by top 100 retailers in FY2024-25, with top 10 owning 34% in specialty market, solidifying oligopoly. Leaders...