Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.</li>
<li>Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.</li>
<li>While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.</li>
</ul>


With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.


Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).

Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Isuzu Motors Placement - Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Muji continues its impressive growth streak both at home and abroad – sales in March alone rose 33% in Japan.</li>
<li>Muji has grown in part because of its ability to move into new categories, even cosmetics and food, possible because <strong>Muji's biggest asset is how well it is trusted</strong>.</li>
<li>The latest, with significant potential given inbound demand, is Muji Stay which includes its own hotels, rooms in other hotels and inns, as well as house rentals on Airbnb.</li>
</ul>


Muji continues its impressive growth streak both at home and abroad – sales in March alone rose 33% in Japan.
Muji has grown in part because of its ability to move into new categories, even cosmetics and food, possible because Muji's biggest asset is how well it is trusted.
The latest, with significant potential given inbound demand, is Muji Stay which includes its own hotels, rooms in other hotels and inns, as well as house rentals on Airbnb.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible. </li>
<li>Even with only one name replacement, there are some big side trades and US$3.2bn a side to trade for now.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible. 
Even with only one name replacement, there are some big side trades and US$3.2bn a side to trade for now.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable, Kokusai a Question but $3bn+ a Side

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Rigaku IPO Lockup - Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Isuzu Motors Placement - Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Trust in Muji Reaps Big Returns

Muji's rapid growth fuelled by trust, allowing it to expand into growing new categories like cosmetics and food, now venturing into inbound...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable, Kokusai a Question but $3bn+ a Side

Sep25 Nikkei 225 rebal has 3mos to go for data but it's mostly decided. The questions remaining are less about ranks, and more about rules. I'm...

Travis Lundy

Rigaku IPO Lockup - Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Isuzu Motors Placement - Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Trust in Muji Reaps Big Returns

​Muji's rapid growth fuelled by trust, allowing it to expand into growing new categories like cosmetics and food, now venturing into inbound...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable, Kokusai a Question but $3bn+ a Side

Sep25 Nikkei 225 rebal has 3mos to go for data but it's mostly decided. The questions remaining are less about ranks, and more about rules. I'm...

Travis Lundy

Rigaku IPO Lockup - Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Muji's rapid growth fuelled by trust, allowing it to expand into growing new categories like cosmetics and food, now venturing into inbound...