Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> reported salutary Q3 earnings, and raised its full-year (to August) guidance and its final dividend forecast (by ¥50/share)</li>
<li>Q3 revenue and profit gained sharply (Rev +13.5%, OP +31.2%) everywhere but Greater China. OPMs were up, especially in Japan. Early summer has been good, despite FX impact. </li>
<li>New guidance is above consensus, the ADR popped, and with slightly stronger yen on US CPI, that should help. But we approach end-July. Expect lots of pop-sellers.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday after the close, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) reported salutary Q3 earnings, and raised its full-year (to August) guidance and its final dividend forecast (by ¥50/share)
Q3 revenue and profit gained sharply (Rev +13.5%, OP +31.2%) everywhere but Greater China. OPMs were up, especially in Japan. Early summer has been good, despite FX impact. 
New guidance is above consensus, the ADR popped, and with slightly stronger yen on US CPI, that should help. But we approach end-July. Expect lots of pop-sellers.


Fast Retailing (9983) - Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. </li>
<li>Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.</li>
<li>There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.


SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Workman was a purveyor of durable gear for workers in jobs like construction but then had the brilliant idea to transpose that expertise to create activewear like Decathlon.</li>
<li>This was working well but then it decided to take on the likes of Fast Retailing and Shimamura by moving into casual clothing.</li>
<li>Since then, same-store sales growth has been negative in many months and profits have fallen. The outlook is increasingly poor.</li>
</ul>


Workman was a purveyor of durable gear for workers in jobs like construction but then had the brilliant idea to transpose that expertise to create activewear like Decathlon.
This was working well but then it decided to take on the likes of Fast Retailing and Shimamura by moving into casual clothing.
Since then, same-store sales growth has been negative in many months and profits have fallen. The outlook is increasingly poor.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing (9983) - Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data

Fast Retailing reported great Q3 and 9mo results yesterday after the close. Revenue up, OP up, inventory problems being dealt with, higher...

Travis Lundy

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Workman Under Pressure

Workman's shift from durable work gear to casual clothing has led to declining sales and profits, challenging its once successful business model.

Michael Causton

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fast Retailing (9983) - Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data

Fast Retailing reported great Q3 and 9mo results yesterday after the close. Revenue up, OP up, inventory problems being dealt with, higher...

Travis Lundy

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Workman Under Pressure

​Workman's shift from durable work gear to casual clothing has led to declining sales and profits, challenging its once successful business model.

Michael Causton

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Workman's shift from durable work gear to casual clothing has led to declining sales and profits, challenging its once successful business model.

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...