Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

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Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
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Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)</a> targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Pair Trade with a Valuation Edge

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

During last year it was not about intrinsic economic or bank health. There was a filter applied to the analysis. With its removal now, we believe that inherent malaise for India corporates will become clear again.

During last year it was not about intrinsic economic or bank health. There was a filter applied to the analysis. With its removal now, we believe that inherent malaise for India corporates will become clear again.

India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure due to multiple factors playing out such as Moratorium, the Supreme Court interim order and the Restructuring framework. How well placed are Indian Banks to ride the current stress cycle?

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure due to multiple factors playing out such as Moratorium, the Supreme Court interim order and the Restructuring framework. How well placed are Indian Banks to ride the current stress cycle?

Indian Banks: How Well-Placed Are Indian Banks to Ride the Current Stress Cycle?

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<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 13 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and eight sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 13 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and eight sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Jul 2026)

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Despite reporting a 36% yoy fall in 3QFY2021 net profits and being <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/quarterly-earnings/axis-bank-q3-results-net-profit-falls-36-on-higher-provisions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">below</a> consensus estimates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> 's share price on January 28, 2021 closed 6% up, while the Nifty-50 declined by 1%. The strong and positive response to the bank’s results was surprising, as Axis Bank declined to voluntarily disclose its 30+ days past due loans, a critical indicator which the bank had disclosed in its 2QFY2021 results conference <a href="https://www.axisbank.com/docs/default-source/call-transcript/q2fy21-earnings-call-transcript.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">call</a>. The 30+ days past due loans serves as a benchmark to analysts to estimate future non-performing loans and incremental credit costs, especially at a time when past trends for credit costs may not hold on account of the unprecedented Covid-19 related lockdown, which severely curtailed economic activity. Even though 30+ day past loans is not a mandatory disclosure, once the senior management of a bank takes a decision to voluntarily disclose the indicator in a certain quarter, thereafter, from a transparency perspective, the bank would be well advised to continue to disclose the number. By failing to voluntarily disclose the 30+ day past due loans in the 3QFY2021, there would be a valid apprehension that the lack of disclosure is because of a sharp deterioration in the indicator, which the bank was uncomfortable in revealing to the market.It is commendable that banks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a> (BOB), which reported 3QFY2021 results on January 27, voluntarily disclosed the 30+ days past due loans in their analyst presentation, despite the number revealing a significant deterioration in asset quality as compared with 2QFY2021. The equity market severely punished their share prices on January 28, with Yes Bank falling by 4% and BOB by 10% on January 28.Participants in the capital market such as shareholders, business media and analysts need to publicly call out companies (in this case banks) which cease to voluntarily disclose critical data points that were earlier disclosed, as its sudden absence in all likelihood indicates a negative development which the company does not want to share with stakeholders.

Despite reporting a 36% yoy fall in 3QFY2021 net profits and being below consensus estimates, Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) 's share price on January 28, 2021 closed 6% up, while the Nifty-50 declined by 1%. The strong and positive response to the bank’s results was surprising, as Axis Bank declined to voluntarily disclose its 30+ days past due loans, a critical indicator which the bank had disclosed in its 2QFY2021 results conference call. The 30+ days past due loans serves as a benchmark to analysts to estimate future non-performing loans and incremental credit costs, especially at a time when past trends for credit costs may not hold on account of the unprecedented Covid-19 related lockdown, which severely curtailed economic activity. Even though 30+ day past loans is not a mandatory disclosure, once the senior management of a bank takes a decision to voluntarily disclose the indicator in a certain quarter, thereafter, from a transparency perspective, the bank would be well advised to continue to disclose the number. By failing to voluntarily disclose the 30+ day past due loans in the 3QFY2021, there would be a valid apprehension that the lack of disclosure is because of a sharp deterioration in the indicator, which the bank was uncomfortable in revealing to the market.It is commendable that banks like Yes Bank (YES IN) and Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) (BOB), which reported 3QFY2021 results on January 27, voluntarily disclosed the 30+ days past due loans in their analyst presentation, despite the number revealing a significant deterioration in asset quality as compared with 2QFY2021. The equity market severely punished their share prices on January 28, with Yes Bank falling by 4% and BOB by 10% on January 28.Participants in the capital market such as shareholders, business media and analysts need to publicly call out companies (in this case banks) which cease to voluntarily disclose critical data points that were earlier disclosed, as its sudden absence in all likelihood indicates a negative development which the company does not want to share with stakeholders. 

Axis Bank Stops Sharing 30+ Days Past Due Data: When Sudden Silence Tells a Tale

India

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

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Yes Bank (YES IN)

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Pair Trade with a Valuation Edge

5% target return as a statistical pair trade is reinforced by supportive valuation metrics. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

India Banks – Remove The Filter

India's banks are not seeing a major decline in provisions like others. We wonder if inherent India corporate risk is now coming through more...

Daniel Tabbush

Indian Banks: How Well-Placed Are Indian Banks to Ride the Current Stress Cycle?

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure . Can...

Saumya Agarwal

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Jul 2026)

Discover 13 pair trade opportunities across six markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Pair Trade with a Valuation Edge

5% target return as a statistical pair trade is reinforced by supportive valuation metrics. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

India Banks – Remove The Filter

India's banks are not seeing a major decline in provisions like others. We wonder if inherent India corporate risk is now coming through more...

Daniel Tabbush

Indian Banks: How Well-Placed Are Indian Banks to Ride the Current Stress Cycle?

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure . Can...

Saumya Agarwal

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Jul 2026)

​Discover 13 pair trade opportunities across six markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Axis Bank Stops Sharing 30+ Days Past Due Data: When Sudden Silence Tells a Tale

When a bank, after earlier disclosing an indicator, fails to disclose it in future, it alerts stakeholders to the fact that it may be hiding a...

Hemindra Hazari

Discover 13 pair trade opportunities across six markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.