HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a> will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. </li>
<li>We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. 
We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  


Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US</li>
<li>Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment</li>
<li>The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com</li>
</ul>


Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com


In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).</li>
<li>There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> will have passives buying, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> switches to a sell.</li>
</ul>


Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.

NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.


Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%.  Since its inception last year, the portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 18%.</li>
<li>Although the tech sector was hit after April 2nd, the portfolio made 2% in its tech exposure for the month.  We reduced the portfolio's volatility &amp; increased its Sharpe ratio.</li>
<li>At the end of April, sold positions that are at risk from the tariff uncertainty and increased our exposure to China domestic consumption.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%.  Since its inception last year, the portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 18%.
Although the tech sector was hit after April 2nd, the portfolio made 2% in its tech exposure for the month.  We reduced the portfolio's volatility &amp; increased its Sharpe ratio.
At the end of April, sold positions that are at risk from the tariff uncertainty and increased our exposure to China domestic consumption.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.</li>
<li>This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and "trade frameworks."</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.
Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.
This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and "trade frameworks."


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

In the US, Pinduoduo's Temu platform has made sudden, dramatic changes to its business model. The changes could bring Temu into direct competition...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%. Since its inception last year, the portfolio has...

David Mudd

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Volume was weaker in the 3-day week ahead of a long weekend. Nothing stood out except selling of tech and consumer discretionary (BYD and BABA). We...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

​Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

In the US, Pinduoduo's Temu platform has made sudden, dramatic changes to its business model. The changes could bring Temu into direct competition...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%. Since its inception last year, the portfolio has...

David Mudd

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Volume was weaker in the 3-day week ahead of a long weekend. Nothing stood out except selling of tech and consumer discretionary (BYD and BABA). We...

Travis Lundy

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...