Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.</li>
<li>The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.</li>
<li>Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.
The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.
Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.


Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Trip.Com (9961 HK), ABC (1288 HK), BYD (1211 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Trip.Com (9961 HK), ABC (1288 HK), BYD (1211 HK).


HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, ABC, BYD

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 21st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Ke, China Mobile, Alibaba, Kuaishou, BOC, China Resources Beer, SMIC, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 21st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Ke, China Mobile, Alibaba, Kuaishou, BOC, China Resources Beer, SMIC, Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 21st): Ke, China Mobile, Alibaba, Kuaishou, BOC, CR Beer, SMIC

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.</li>
<li>The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.
The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.</li>
<li>The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup. </li>
<li>Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.
The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup. 
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of "Day Trading" And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

First post-earnings trading session for Meituan in Asia today. On Friday, after earnings, the stock lost 6.4% in Europe (9MDA.F, -) and 5.1% in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, ABC, BYD

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 14th and highlight short interest changes in Trip.Com (9961 HK), ABC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 21st): Ke, China Mobile, Alibaba, Kuaishou, BOC, CR Beer, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Ke, China Mobile, Alibaba, Kuaishou, BOC, China Resources...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview#20 - Welcome to Bizzaro World!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. The new investing landscape is a complete reversal of what has worked...

Rikki Malik

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of "Day Trading" And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

Tech and Consumer Discretionary saw its net buying slow considerably. Finance continues to see widespread buying, and as we approach dividends, the...

Travis Lundy

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